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2020 Dumpster Fire (Enter at your own risk)


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Just now, UND1983 said:

 Will policy be driven by our numbers if we release them?

If enough people say Hillary will be president, will she be president? 

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The only people who need to be tested are health care workers, the elderly, and those with underlying health conditions.  If you are young (under 50) and healthy and are taking up a test kit, crowding

This country is being bright to its knees by fear....not the virus. Recovery from getting the virus is a couple weeks. Recovery of society from this hysteria will be years.

It’s sad that about half the country still believes outlets like msnbc and cnn.  You would think after they lied everyday for 3 years about Russian collusion, people would get the hint of what their t

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16 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

I guess I'm not sure where you were able to infer that I said or suggested that.....but if I had to put money on the 57000 number if Walz and MN just let it rip from day one I would definitely have bet the under.

You brought up the 57,000 deaths as a point of contention, not me. If it didnt matter, don't bring it up next time. MN has 700,000 ages over 65 with underlying conditions that are an easy target for corona. Over 50,000 live in nursing homes and LTC facilities. Double that live in Condos and 55/65+ cooperatives. All I am getting at is letting it rip through that population, which we know it massacres, makes 57,000 deaths a reasonable estimate. 

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Since such a large percentage of the corona deaths are the elderly and vulnerable, do these 12 month death predictions take into account a reasonable estimate of the number of people who were going to die within the next 12 months anyway?  
Or do these estimates operate under the assumption that nobody will die, ever, unless of course they contract COVID-19?

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13 minutes ago, Nodak78 said:

The experts will revise the model until it matches actual numbers.  Many of us said the variables comparing NY to the rest of NY was not accurate.  But you said wait it will happen.  

The experts will revise the model to update for actual numbers, then use the newly formed trendline to forecast the future. That is how every model, for every industry works. I did not say EVERY STATE WILL BE NEW YORK. I said, with data to back it up, that the NY averages 30% of the mean with respect to traditional airborne disease deaths (AKA the flu). I suggested it would be a naive approach to blindly assume that New York is an alien state with no comparables and that it would be impossible for other states to not be impacted on a level similar to recent history. 

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14 minutes ago, Walsh Hall said:

They have consistently proven themselves wrong.  Why is it that they are always wrong, and always wrong the same way?

I understand that this business isnt an exact science.  I’d just expect that they’d be wrong as many time on the high side as the low side.  If you are wrong every single time on the same side you have no credibility.  That indicates a “belief system” and an agenda.

Check these clowns‘ estimates on Ebola, SARS...  1.7 millions deaths from Ebola?  Oops, it was actually 2.  

I think one of the main issues is an agency or university releases a model early on with limited data available and it predicts between 10,000 and 1 million deaths.  The media then puts a big bold headline of "Pandemic predicted to kill 1 MILLION people!!!"  It's usually not that the models are intentionally overstating, but due to unknowns the range was wide, and for the media no news sells as well as fear.

Edit:  It should also be noted the university/agency will typically have a LOT of notes and caveats on how the model works.  All of that nuance is lost once the results are filtered through a "journalist" and it gets even worse once the editor and social media intern get ahold of it.

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31 minutes ago, dynato said:

The experts will revise the model to update for actual numbers, then use the newly formed trendline to forecast the future. That is how every model, for every industry works. I did not say EVERY STATE WILL BE NEW YORK. I said, with data to back it up, that the NY averages 30% of the mean with respect to traditional airborne disease deaths (AKA the flu). I suggested it would be a naive approach to blindly assume that New York is an alien state with no comparables and that it would be impossible for other states to not be impacted on a level similar to recent history. 

Well NY inflated their numbers by placing positive Covid19 residents back into nursing homes.  Helped the surge to fit the model.

 

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2 minutes ago, Siouxphan27 said:

Since such a large percentage of the corona deaths are the elderly and vulnerable, do these 12 month death predictions take into account a reasonable estimate of the number of people who were going to die within the next 12 months anyway?  
Or do these estimates operate under the assumption that nobody will die, ever, unless of course they contract COVID-19?

My grandpa had quadruple bypass heart surgery in 1988. Told his odds of surviving were 10%. Ten years later, Mayo doctors said his heart was too fragile to ever touch again, his pacemaker will never be replaced. That he additionally had a heart murmur (sp?) and was told to expect his heart to explode and die at any moment. In 2008, he had a brain aneurysm and underwent brain surgery. Lost all of his memory except for the name of his wife and has recovered 95% of it back. He is now 82 years old. Humans are resilient and resist death.

The I do not know if the models try to account for naturally occurring/previously established death rates, I assume that is where the confidence intervals come into play. If you are curious to where the USA stands, the CDC has compiled a chart of total deaths in the USA. You are able to remove covid deaths. It shows that there are 25-35% excess weekly deaths compared to prior years. Not saying the excess deaths are covid, not saying its not. Saying explicitly nobody knows. 
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

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4 minutes ago, Nodak78 said:

Well NY inflated their numbers by placing positive Covid19 residents back into nursing homes.  Helped the surge to fit the model.

 

Where should they have been put? Is it unlawful and against precedent to send a patient home from the hospital if they do not need hospital services? Is it not the individuals responsibility to gauge what they should do, precautions they should take, and where they should stay?

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11 minutes ago, dynato said:

Where should they have been put? Is it unlawful and against precedent to send a patient home from the hospital if they do not need hospital services? Is it not the individuals responsibility to gauge what they should do, precautions they should take, and where they should stay?

How about the Cuomo residence

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1 hour ago, UNDBIZ said:

I think one of the main issues is an agency or university releases a model early on with limited data available and it predicts between 10,000 and 1 million deaths.  The media then puts a big bold headline of "Pandemic predicted to kill 1 MILLION people!!!"  It's usually not that the models are intentionally overstating, but due to unknowns the range was wide, and for the media no news sells as well as fear.

Edit:  It should also be noted the university/agency will typically have a LOT of notes and caveats on how the model works.  All of that nuance is lost once the results are filtered through a "journalist" and it gets even worse once the editor and social media intern get ahold of it.

Whoa whoa whoa. I was told that the media was not to be blamed for any of this and that if you did blame them, you were just regurgitating a "right-wing" talking point?

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2 hours ago, Bison Dan said:

I find it interesting that most of the same people who believe in all the models for global warming are the same that believe these models.  All have been GIGO

How Dare You Greta GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

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22 minutes ago, SiouxBoys said:

Whoa whoa whoa. I was told that the media was not to be blamed for any of this and that if you did blame them, you were just regurgitating a "right-wing" talking point?

Not by me.

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18 minutes ago, yzerman19 said:

Man some people just love doom porn...

I wonder if so many people are just leading such miserable lives that they Just want everything to burn...

 

 

It’s todays politics and the virus has become/has always been political.  There are 20% that are in the middle of believing things should open and people can choose for themselves and it’s also ok if you want to stay in and your lifestyle  allows.  You just won’t find those people on message boards or social media.  

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11 minutes ago, homer said:

It’s todays politics and the virus has become/has always been political.  There are 20% that are in the middle of believing things should open and people can choose for themselves.  You just won’t find those people on message boards or social media.  

I just don’t understand the animosity in politics today.  It’s ridiculous.

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56 minutes ago, yzerman19 said:

Man some people just love doom porn...

I wonder if so many people are just leading such miserable lives that they Just want everything to burn...

 

 

that is not fair, my life is miserable and I don't want everything to burn....    can I live by your dumpster?

 

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17 minutes ago, 90siouxfan said:

that is not fair, my life is miserable and I don't want everything to burn....    can I live by your dumpster?

 

Only if you wear a mask LOL

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I'd have to agree. https://www.govexec.com/oversight/2020/05/quarantine-fatigue-real/165308/

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#StayHome had its moment. The United States urgently needed to flatten the curve and buy time to scale up health-care capacity, testing, and contact tracing. But quarantine fatigue is real. I’m not talking about the people who are staging militaristic protests against the supposed coronavirus hoax. I’m talking about those who are experiencing the profound burden of extreme physical and social distancing. In addition to the economic hardship it causes, isolation can severely damage psychological well-being, especially for people who were already depressed or anxious before the crisis started. In a recent poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation, nearly half of Americans said that the coronavirus pandemic has harmed their mental health.

 

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The second round of Covid-19 problems won’t be the virus.
 

It will be an economic, social, and mental health based pandemic that will make the first round look like the sniffles. 

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