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2020 Dumpster Fire (Enter at your own risk)

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2 hours ago, UNDBIZ said:

Possibly. Or it's an indicator the lockdowns are having a significantly negative effect on public health. Probably a combination. 

 

1 hour ago, dynato said:

No doubt it is it is a combination, I will not argue against that. There will be more suicides and more domestic homicides. I would be willing to bet money to your favorite charity that negative effects on public health account will only account for a small sliver of the excess deaths being experienced in America. Suicide rates and domestic homicides would have to double, nearly triple to account for all of the excess deaths. To me, that idea is unrealistic until proven otherwise.

 

The amount of death caused by the lockdown is probably relatively small.  'Extra death' rates generally correspond to Covid peaks and valleys.  If the lockdown is significantly contributing to extra death figures, would not the rate of extra death resemble a slow incline over time as people become more desperate, uncared-for, poor, angry, and isolated?  This is not happening though.  Not anywhere.    

This isn’t just an American phenomenon. Countries all over the world are experiencing increases in excess deaths that roughly correlate to Covid rates; even countries that implemented little or no lock-down restrictions (Sweden, Netherlands).  Interesting rough analysis:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

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9 minutes ago, UNDlaw80 said:

The amount of death caused by the lockdown is probably relatively small.  'Extra death' rates tend to correlate to Covid peaks and valleys.  If the lockdown is significantly contributing to extra death figures, would not the rate of extra death resemble a slow incline over time as people become more desperate, poor, angry, ill-cared for and isolated?  This is not happening though.  Not anywhere.    

This isn’t just an American phenomenon. Countries all over the world are experiencing increases in excess deaths that correlate to Covid rates; even countries that implemented little or no lock-down restrictions (Sweden, Netherlands).  Interesting rough analysis:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

We can look at categories where death has decreased too. In times of economic downturn, that the mortality rate generally decreases. Despite suicides, overdoses, and homicides increasing. It is widely founded that economic downturn decreases deaths due to less automotive accidents, air quality improvements, less workplace injuries, and small impacts like people drinking and smoking less since they cannot afford to. Granted we have economic downturn + pandemic, but the same principle should apply. 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277953617304495

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Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York has said, and repeatedly returned to the theme, that all of the lock downs and quarantines in his state will be worth it even if it saves “just one life.”   

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1 hour ago, dynato said:

We can look at categories where death has decreased too. In times of economic downturn, that the mortality rate generally decreases. Despite suicides, overdoses, and homicides increasing. It is widely founded that economic downturn decreases deaths due to less automotive accidents, air quality improvements, less workplace injuries, and small impacts like people drinking and smoking less since they cannot afford to. Granted we have economic downturn + pandemic, but the same principle should apply. 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277953617304495

 

That's quite fascinating, something I never bothered to look into......the counter-intuitive relationship between health and recession. 

Currently reading a study about Europe's 2008 economic downturn.  The reduction in mortality was more prominent in the countries where the recession was most severe.  Per the standard.    

 

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14 hours ago, Oxbow6 said:

25 new positives in ND on 1401 tests.

We ran out of testing plates and the state lab has a backlog of 5000 plus tests.

#smartrestart

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28 minutes ago, Redneksioux said:

We ran out of testing plates and the state lab has a backlog of 5000 plus tests.

#smartrestart

What are you personally looking for in these numbers? I'm curious. 

If ND did 5000 tests today and 157 came back positive what would that do for you other than pointing out like Forum Communications that the 157 positives is a new single day high in the state?

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7 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

What are you personally looking for in these numbers? I'm curious. 

If ND did 5000 tests today and 137 came back positive what would that do for you other than pointing out like Forum Communications that the 157 positives is a new single day high in the state?

He is hoping for big results from this batch of tests.  

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8286345/UKs-work-blueprint-Hot-desking-banned-no-sharing-pens-canteens-closed.html

The UK starting to formulate possible work restrictions for the summer.  People over 70, pregnant women, and the severely obese could be required to work from home.  Just being tossed around the UK for now but I'd suggest that the just one-lifers on this board start plowing in calories or else they might have to leave their house before football season if the US follows suit. 

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21 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

What are you personally looking for in these numbers? I'm curious. 

If ND did 5000 tests today and 157 came back positive what would that do for you other than pointing out like Forum Communications that the 157 positives is a new single day high in the state?

Oh I'd just like to see the percentage of positives continue to trend downwards. If we are going into this blindly is it really a smart restart?

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15 minutes ago, Redneksioux said:

Oh I'd just like to see the percentage of positives continue to trend downwards. If we are going into this blindly is it really a smart restart?

Blindly??? How much daily and accumulative data do you need?  Again just curious.

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17 minutes ago, Redneksioux said:

Oh I'd just like to see the percentage of positives continue to trend downwards. If we are going into this blindly is it really a smart restart?

So essentially you want to see the entire state tested at least once before you let things fully to open up.  Oh...and the numbers need to be going down for how many days in a row?  Every day?  Til we reach zero?  

I need criteria. 

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2 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

How much daily and accumulative data do you need?  Again just curious.

If the Burgum is going to open things up claiming a smart restart and shooting for 3000 tests per day, there should be some follow through on this. 

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3 minutes ago, Redneksioux said:

If the Burgum is going to open things up claiming a smart restart and shooting for 3000 tests per day, there should be some follow through on this. 

Wasn't the goal 2000/day in May, 4000/day in June, and 6000/day in July?

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4 minutes ago, Redneksioux said:

If the Burgum is going to open things up claiming a smart restart and shooting for 3000 tests per day, there should be some follow through on this. 

1000, 2000, 3000, 100000 tests per day......does it really matter as long as the positive percentage rate stays relatively consistent, the hospital admissions are stable and bodies aren't falling from the sky?

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2 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

1000, 2000, 3000, 100000 tests per day......does it really matter as long as the positive percentage rate stays relatively consistent, the hospital admissions are stable and bodies aren't falling from the sky?

I’m just going by numbers Burgum has mentioned. When we are mass testing long term care facilities but our test numbers are on the decline due to lack of supplies it’s a little disappointing.

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7 minutes ago, Redneksioux said:

Thanks.  Memory is going.

Edit:  It's apparently changed since April 22, but the stated goal now is 4000 by the end of May. https://ndresponse.gov/sites/www/files/documents/covid-19/ND Smart Restart/8 Conditions.pdf

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The value of testing is to find who is carrying the virus, not who is not.  Tomorrow the who is not's could be the who is.

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2 minutes ago, Old Fella said:

The value of testing is to find who is carrying the virus, not who is not.  Tomorrow the who is not's could be the who is.

Right.  So when does it stop?  

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1 minute ago, UND1983 said:

Right.  So when does it stop?  

When does the testing stop?

 

I think the bigger question is when will tighter social distancing restrictions be re-implemented. 

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1 minute ago, UND1983 said:

Right.  So when does it stop?  

When we get a vacine or when we all act responsible when out with the public.  Some countries have been able to vertually  eliminate the virus when their citizens act responsibly,

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2 minutes ago, Old Fella said:

When we get a vacine or when we all act responsible when out with the public.  Some countries have been able to vertually  eliminate the virus when their citizens act responsibly,

OK.  So next year sometime we open things up, start concerts and events?  Who has eliminated the virus and how do they compare to the U.S.?

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9 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

What are you personally looking for in these numbers? I'm curious. 

If ND did 5000 tests today and 137 came back positive what would that do for you other than pointing out like Forum Communications that the 157 positives is a new single day high in the state?

More tests could prove your point that COVID is widespread and rampant in our population, decreasing the crude mortality rate sooner, so Burgum would have better justification to open much sooner. As is, ND has the fourth highest testing per capita, yet we are 30th in positive cases per capita. Burgum likely see this as an indication that covid hasnt moved through our population yet. ND Sandford is rolling out 1200 antibody tests a day, which would also help confirm suspicions, but they said expect more information in the weeks to come.

Running more tests, isolating the sick, will be one of the quicker ways to reduce future positive cases as Old Fella implies. 

28 minutes ago, TheFlop said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8286345/UKs-work-blueprint-Hot-desking-banned-no-sharing-pens-canteens-closed.html

The UK starting to formulate possible work restrictions for the summer.  People over 70, pregnant women, and the severely obese could be required to work from home.  Just being tossed around the UK for now but I'd suggest that the just one-lifers on this board start plowing in calories or else they might have to leave their house before football season if the US follows suit. 

What are your thoughts on immunity passports? Prove you have had the disease and no longer a transmitter, that you are immune to be able enter your workplace. This idea is already circulating in the USA. Fauci already said it is a possibility on national news. I see this as a large threat
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/03/coronavirus-health-passports-for-uk-possible-in-months

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