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2020 Dumpster Fire (Enter at your own risk)

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Interesting timing:

 William Byron in front of the podium with a chart at the White House press briefing now discussing how temp, humidity,  and sunlight affect Covid19 half life.

Biggest takeaway: solar kills it almost immediately (90 seconds or so).

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22 minutes ago, Cratter said:

Interesting timing:

 William Byron in front of the podium with a chart at the White House press briefing now discussing how temp, humidity,  and sunlight affect Covid19 half life.

Biggest takeaway: solar kills it almost immediately (90 seconds or so).

CNN right after Byron got off stage...

Wolf Blitzer: "If you believe" (the data he presented)

His guest: "Yes, If you believe..."

CNN getting in on the conspiracy theories.

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21 hours ago, Nodak78 said:

Yes the hospital's were probably full or close to full.  The Gov said he needed 30k ventilators.  And someone had to pick which 26k was going to die.  Now we know that was a huge overstatement to be mild.  Yet he never suggested a solution to protect the most at risk.  No solutions.  That is his job.  He received 4 emails from a child of one of the residents exposed and died from his inaction.  What should have Gov Cuomo have done is the question.  Certainly not expose at risk seniors.

No, the hospitals were over-full.  There was no 'full or close to full' anywhere near NYC except that useless ship that refused to take more than 20 patients for the first week and a half it was here.  And even working at 150%-200% for inpatient capacity, there was always a huge long line of patients in the ER who needed to be admitted, waiting for more beds to become available.  So let's think of the various options for this problem: 

1. Covid patients who came from or now need to be admitted to a long-term or short-term facility have to stay in the hospital because no one will accept them.  This creates a huge issue with the availability of inpatient beds for new patients coming in sick (including those arriving from nursing homes).  It was already an issue with patients dying in the ER while waiting for an inpatient room, but now those deaths get multiplied.

2. Covid patients who came from or now need to be admitted to a long-term or short-term facility have to go to a designated facility post-discharge.  This creates a huge logistical nightmare as all the current residents of said facility will need to be transferred elsewhere, and that process is not a quick one, dependent on insurance, wards of the state, etc..  Logistically, I'm not 100% certain this would even be possible, but let's say that it is possible, though would undoubtedly be very difficult.  Unless they made the Javitz center the designated facility.  I'm not familiar with how things were structured inside there to know if this could have been a legitimate option.

3. Covid patients who came from or now need to be admitted to a long-term or short-term facility go back to the facility that they came from.  The facility can rearrange patient room assignments to have a designated ward for covid patients (much as hospitals did before covid patients overtook the vast majority of the hospital).  Doing so is the responsibility of each facility.  If the facility does not have a ward with negative pressure capabilities, they can rent a portable HVAC unit that creates a negative pressure area.  Again, this is what hospitals had to do and are currently doing.

Now that I think about it, number 3 seems like the most feasible option.  So if hospitals were responsible for figuring out on their own how to deal with the infection to minimize the risk to other patients (including those of older age who are most at risk), how are nursing homes not responsible for the same?  The mandate that long-term care facilities be required to take covid patients post-hospital discharge primarily helped to eliminate situation #1.  If I were a family member, I'd be pissed at the facility for not taking proper precautions, not the governor.  Another thing to consider, given the high percentages noted in the early antibody testing, is that the spread of covid within facilities could have come from employees and their outside lives, not a connection through a recovering resident.

Many people on this site seem to be praising the Las Vegas mayor, and she openly said that she had zero involvement or responsibility in figuring out how to do things safely.  According to her, it's the casinos/businesses/hospitals/medical professionals, etc. that are responsible for figuring out how to get everything done.*  But Cuomo** is responsible for not micromanaging the safety precautions put in at each individual facility?

*For the record, I do not like AC at all or his interviewing tactics.  But I think they both made fools of themselves in that interview for totally different reasons.

**I'm actually not a huge fan of Cuomo's policies coming into this epidemic, but I think he has made some decent decisions given the circumstances (and some poor ones too).  Fights with Trump aside (cause it's all politics), when he asked for ventilators and the ships and testing and PPE, the rate of covid hospitalizations in the state were doubling every two days.  That's absurd.  He asked for supplies that were based on projections of what was currently happening.  No one knew at that point whether or not the lockdown would work to help reduce the spread of the virus.  Thankfully, it did, and now all those requests look extremely excessive.

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3 hours ago, TheFlop said:

Question for the outpatient doctor community (Oxbow and whoever).  How often during a routine visit/elective procedure do you find an unexpected condition that requires immediate attention?  I.e. something that can be dealt with if it's acted upon soon.....but that can turn into a big deal (including possible death) if delayed more than a couple weeks/months?  Or is that a non-factor when determining the negative effects of the lockdown. 

1) Not often but have capabilities to deal with any urgent care issue that pops up even in this environment.

2) Definitely a negative factor for many patients that have had appointments or procedures pushed back and delayed.

Specialties vary though on urgent or emergency needed care....ENT is different than Derm which is different than Rheumatology which is different then Neurology.........

Care needed for sudden loss of vision is different than a 3 month skin check with a history of skin cancer which is different from an increase in migrainous events over the past 2 months.

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1 hour ago, Cratter said:

Interesting timing:

 William Byron in front of the podium with a chart at the White House press briefing now discussing how temp, humidity,  and sunlight affect Covid19 half life.

Biggest takeaway: solar kills it almost immediately (90 seconds or so).

 

So, basically, Coronavirus follows the seasonality of the flu, H1N1, etc.  .  

This is what many scientists expected, but could not verify considering this virus has not been around long enough to collect evidence. 

 

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Why hasnt the media talked more about stuff like this before?

It was only hiding in plain sight.

2009 article from American Journal of Public Health:

The Open-Air Treatment of Pandemic Influenza

Quote

A combination of fresh air, sunlight, scrupulous standards of hygiene, and reusable face masks appears to have substantially reduced deaths among some patients and infections among medical staff (spanish flu).

Quote

However, more might be gained by introducing high levels of natural ventilation or, indeed, by encouraging the public to spend as much time outdoors as possible. 

 

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1 hour ago, UNDlaw80 said:

 

So, basically, Coronavirus follows the seasonality of the flu, H1N1, etc.  .  

This is what many scientists expected, but could not verify considering this virus has not been around long enough to collect evidence. 

 

I REALLY hope this proves to be true.  It looks likely based on the environmental studies, but we don't know until we know.  IIRC, H1N1 petered out in June.  That would (hopefully) give us five months to figure out what to do in case this becomes seasonal.

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2 hours ago, SIOUXFAN97 said:

subway lines....get on grab a hand rail...still tired so rubbing your eyes and mouth and yawning ...on there for 20,40, 60 minutes with people being replaced at every stop.

And as discussed the NYC subway system is massive and widely used, so it doesn’t take a genius to see it as a major vector for spreading the disease.  BART is also a major metro public transit system, and it was closed early....SF is akin to a mini NYC in all regards, is home to the largest Chinatown in the country, and is home to the major airport between Silicon Valley and Asia....outcome has been completely different.  NYC govt flat out blew it. Fortunately they’ve got warriors like Keikla fighting in the trenches or it would be worse.

sidenote:  I’ve lived in both NYC and The Bay Area and have no bias...like to visit both

 

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58 minutes ago, keikla said:

No, the hospitals were over-full.  There was no 'full or close to full' anywhere near NYC except that useless ship that refused to take more than 20 patients for the first week and a half it was here.  And even working at 150%-200% for inpatient capacity, there was always a huge long line of patients in the ER who needed to be admitted, waiting for more beds to become available.  So let's think of the various options for this problem: 

1. Covid patients who came from or now need to be admitted to a long-term or short-term facility have to stay in the hospital because no one will accept them.  This creates a huge issue with the availability of inpatient beds for new patients coming in sick (including those arriving from nursing homes).  It was already an issue with patients dying in the ER while waiting for an inpatient room, but now those deaths get multiplied.

2. Covid patients who came from or now need to be admitted to a long-term or short-term facility have to go to a designated facility post-discharge.  This creates a huge logistical nightmare as all the current residents of said facility will need to be transferred elsewhere, and that process is not a quick one, dependent on insurance, wards of the state, etc..  Logistically, I'm not 100% certain this would even be possible, but let's say that it is possible, though would undoubtedly be very difficult.  Unless they made the Javitz center the designated facility.  I'm not familiar with how things were structured inside there to know if this could have been a legitimate option.

3. Covid patients who came from or now need to be admitted to a long-term or short-term facility go back to the facility that they came from.  The facility can rearrange patient room assignments to have a designated ward for covid patients (much as hospitals did before covid patients overtook the vast majority of the hospital).  Doing so is the responsibility of each facility.  If the facility does not have a ward with negative pressure capabilities, they can rent a portable HVAC unit that creates a negative pressure area.  Again, this is what hospitals had to do and are currently doing.

Now that I think about it, number 3 seems like the most feasible option.  So if hospitals were responsible for figuring out on their own how to deal with the infection to minimize the risk to other patients (including those of older age who are most at risk), how are nursing homes not responsible for the same?  The mandate that long-term care facilities be required to take covid patients post-hospital discharge primarily helped to eliminate situation #1.  If I were a family member, I'd be pissed at the facility for not taking proper precautions, not the governor.  Another thing to consider, given the high percentages noted in the early antibody testing, is that the spread of covid within facilities could have come from employees and their outside lives, not a connection through a recovering resident.

Many people on this site seem to be praising the Las Vegas mayor, and she openly said that she had zero involvement or responsibility in figuring out how to do things safely.  According to her, it's the casinos/businesses/hospitals/medical professionals, etc. that are responsible for figuring out how to get everything done.*  But Cuomo** is responsible for not micromanaging the safety precautions put in at each individual facility?

*For the record, I do not like AC at all or his interviewing tactics.  But I think they both made fools of themselves in that interview for totally different reasons.

**I'm actually not a huge fan of Cuomo's policies coming into this epidemic, but I think he has made some decent decisions given the circumstances.  Fights with Trump aside (cause it's all politics), when he asked for ventilators and the ships and testing and PPE, the rate of covid hospitalizations in the state were doubling every two days.  That's absurd.  He asked for supplies that were based on projections of what was currently happening.  No one knew at that point whether or not the lockdown would work to help reduce the spread of the virus.  Thankfully, it did, and now all those requests look extremely excessive.

I agree this is a horrible situation and hospitals overwhelmed.  Cuomo was warned and neglected the conditions.  Nursing home are set up to deal with this anymore than hospitals.  No fear now after the factor Cuomo will have the AG investigate.  He is great for blame but very short on leadership.

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10 minutes ago, keikla said:

I REALLY hope proves to be true.  It looks likely based on the environmental studies, but we don't know until we know.  IIRC, H1N1 petered out in June.  That would (hopefully) give us five months to figure out what to do in case this becomes seasonal.

I hope it does too.

Pray for a hot and humid May.

I hope we can get lucky. 

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1 hour ago, keikla said:

I REALLY hope proves to be true.  It looks likely based on the environmental studies, but we don't know until we know.  IIRC, H1N1 petered out in June.  That would (hopefully) give us five months to figure out what to do in case this becomes seasonal.

 

It also lends credence to Redfield’s comments that a second wave in the fall/winter could be even more challenging, considering we'll receive the full blunt of the season.. 

But yes, a seasonal lull (hopefully) will give us time to prepare, trace, test and get our all around **** together.   

 

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Since the second wave could be much worse than the first according to the experts, I assume there be no way we can have any open schools or sports going on this fall.

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12 minutes ago, Cratter said:

Since the second wave could be much worse than the first according to the experts, I assume there be no way we can have any school or sports going on this fall.

Again per the CDC 28 coronavirus deaths nationwide 24 years of age and younger thru April 18.............so no there won't be school or sports this fall. Higher risk of death by choking on a grape or hot dog.

There will be exponentially more deaths in that age bracket from suicides, alcohol and drugs moving forward. 

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10 minutes ago, Cratter said:

Since the second wave could be much worse than the first according to the experts, I assume there be no way we can have any open schools or sports going on this fall.

 

Depends on our level of preparation.     

 

 

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33 minutes ago, UNDlaw80 said:

Depends on our level of preparation.     

With the flu and corona at the same time, we'll need to flatten the curve regardless of the level of preparedness. 

We can save so many lives by doing this all again next fall.

Big sporting events will be unthinkable.

And if anyone doesnt get the flu vaccine next fall they will have blood on their hands for contributing to grandmas death.

Quote

As Redfield puts it, getting a flu vaccination this year "may allow there to be a hospital bed available for your mother or grandmother that may get coronavirus."

https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-second-wave-flu-season.html

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37 minutes ago, Siouxphan27 said:

Who knew global warming and destroying the ozone would spare mankind from a pandemic. 

Believe me, that is the next big thing that will be touted out of this.  We have already heard that the environment is that much cleaner because everybody is inside.  No doubt someone will see that as an opportunity to restrict travel in the future, even with a devastated economy.

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52 minutes ago, Cratter said:

With the flu and corona at the same time, we'll need to flatten the curve regardless of the level of preparedness. 

We can save so many lives by doing this all again next fall.

Big sporting events will be unthinkable.

And if anyone doesnt get the flu vaccine next fall they will have blood on their hands for contributing to grandmas death.

https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-second-wave-flu-season.html

 

The course of action taken to ‘flatten the curve’ is largely predicated on prior preparedness.   Had testing and tracing been widely available and continuously implemented from the get-go, I suspect the methods of flattening the curve would be different in many parts of this country.     

With that in mind, hopefully we reach a point whereby schools can open with regular and continual testing of kids.

Agreed on big sporting events.  Without a cure, I can’t envision mass gatherings.  But I see no reason sporting leagues couldn't continue without fans in attendance.   Soccer is already opening in Germany that way.  

Just my opinion of course.

 

 

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Just a friendly reminder to not ingest or inject the following: disinfectants such as bleach, lysol, rubbing alcohol.  Also UV lights.

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3 minutes ago, keikla said:

Just a friendly reminder to not ingest or inject the following: disinfectants such as bleach, lysol, rubbing alcohol.  Also UV lights.

Source?

kidding...

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