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2020 Dumpster Fire (Enter at your own risk)

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9 minutes ago, TheFlop said:

Online learning may work for college, but it has proven to be woefully inadequate for K-12.  Middle School teacher friend I spoke to last week indicated about 1/4 of his students haven't done one single thing yet.....but that guidance was to not pressure students for compliance because they already have enough stress on them with Covid/losing their in person school year.  

I thought I read somewhere in the Minneapolis area over 30% haven't even checked in or done anything.

Based in 25-30% non-participation seems like Montana is doing the right thing to at least give the school districts the option to get kids back in the classroom.

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Mayo Clinic is furloughing or reducing hours for 42% of it's employees across all campuses. Will affect roughly 30000 employees. Doctors and administrators taking paycuts of 10-20%. Main hospital in Rochester at 35-40% capacity. Surgical volume at 25-30%. Overall estimated loss is at $3B when this blows over.

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19 hours ago, Oxbow6 said:

So on that note the weekly jobless claims report comes out tomorrow morning.

Opening line is another 4.2M

If you took the over again this week you're a winner.

4.43M more out of work over the past week.

Unemployment now at roughly 16%.

#savelives

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4 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

If you took the over again this week you're a winner.

4.43M more out of work over the past week.

Unemployment now at roughly 16%.

But those 4.43 million people probably helped save at least one life.  

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6 hours ago, dynato said:

For anyone curious, this is (was) the national strategy for pandemic influenza - implementation plan that president Bush orchestrated. It has a little bit of everything for everyone. 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pdf/pandemic-influenza-implementation.pdf

"Low-cost or sustainable social distancing measures should be introduced
within the workplace immediately after a community outbreak begins, and businesses should prepare for
the possibility of measures that have the potential to disrupt their business continuity. Decisions as to
how and when to implement community measures will be made on a case-by-case basis, with the Federal
Government providing support and guidance to local officials. "

It appears this is what is happening currently.   Evidently someone must’ve saved a copy of that old plan. 

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22 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

If you took the over again this week you're a winner.

4.43M more out of work over the past week.

Unemployment now at roughly 16%.

#savelives

It’s gotten quite difficult to find ammo again. People are preparing for the worst. 

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It will be curious to see all government bailout money divided by total covid deaths when this is all over.

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As I was traveling yesterday I heard on the radio that the projected death total economically will be around 77000. Not sure if I buy that number anymore than the original 1-2M projected deaths from COVID but found it interesting that the projected economic death total now is more than the latest death projections from the virus. 

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9 hours ago, SIOUXFAN97 said:

Very disgusting, kudos to the Las Vegas Mayor, she has wisdom, living experience and history to showcase to Anderson Cooper. Politics aside, AC is a snake with many skeletons in his closet. His day will come, karma does exist.

I watched for "entertainment" purposes too. I had no political lens on. 

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I realize that the studies should be subject to scrutiny, but it's estimated that between 30K-50K death occur annually as a result of EACH percent increase in unemployment.  It's a difficult metric to quantify, but something to consider.

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1 hour ago, Oxbow6 said:

According to JAMA of the 5700+ hospitalized patients in the Northwell Health System in NY 94% had more than one underlying medical issue other than COVID. HTN, obesity and DM, in that order, were the top 3 underlying issues. Who knew being a borderline physical train wreck increased one's risk?!?!

Obesity as measured by BMI...and HTN now at anything over 130/80...

6’ 225 with 140/90 hardly seems like a trainwreck...especially among those of Scandinavian and Germanic ancestry

but I get your point.

 

 

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That interview was awful.  Fully agree with the mayor that at some point, people need to be allowed to make their own decision   I don’t have to go to Vegas if it suddenly a casino suddenly turns on their slot machines again   Based on economic info a fair chunk of the population doesn’t have money to go their anyhow   

My opinion is even after things open up it is going to be extremely challenging getting people who lost their jobs to actually go back to work and not for fear of getting sick.  

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30 minutes ago, dynato said:

For those of you curious about where the "two more weeks" keeps coming from, it is actually from the current (4-23-2020) set of federal criteria for opening up. If everyday is a new peak, then you will be in an infinite loop of two more weeks.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/#criteria

 

No wonder Doug found Tuesday's numbers "disappointing".

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1 minute ago, Oxbow6 said:

No wonder Doug found Tuesday's numbers "disappointing".

We are still looking to meet the criteria for opening up. Then Phase I is businesses open up. Phase II is schools opening back up.

There is a mass testing event today in GF for the remaining employees at LM Windpower. They encouraged all Simplot employees to get tested to help see if there is significant asymptomatic spread in our community.  

If this leads to a spike in cases, another "two weeks" message is likely to be given out when the results come back.

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7 minutes ago, dynato said:

We are still looking to meet the criteria for opening up. Then Phase I is businesses open up. Phase II is schools opening back up.

There is a mass testing event today in GF for the remaining employees at LM Windpower. They encouraged all Simplot employees to get tested to help see if there is significant asymptomatic spread in our community.  

If this leads to a spike in cases, another "two weeks" message is likely to be given out when the results come back.

I get the "criteria" but ND has had 2 days of 50 or more positive tests. Are we ramping up testing of asymptomatic people just to move the needle up....and continually add "2 more weeks"?

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16 minutes ago, dynato said:

We are still looking to meet the criteria for opening up. Then Phase I is businesses open up. Phase II is schools opening back up.

There is a mass testing event today in GF for the remaining employees at LM Windpower. They encouraged all Simplot employees to get tested to help see if there is significant asymptomatic spread in our community.  

If this leads to a spike in cases, another "two weeks" message is likely to be given out when the results come back.

See how this doesn't make sense?  They could play that game all summer into the fall - does anybody think the virus is going away?

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7 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

I get the "criteria" but ND has had 2 days of 50 or more positive tests. Are we ramping up testing of asymptomatic people just to move the needle up....and continually add "2 more weeks"?

I have gotten the impression that Burgum is not just looking at the positive cases and the %.  He specifically indicated that some states will be meeting the downward criteria for opening up, but will still be having significantly more positive tests and a high percentage of positive tests than ND.  

I suspect we'll be learning much more about the actual spread of COVID in the next couple weeks.  Maybe that will spur a systematic reopening.

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4 minutes ago, Walsh Hall said:

I have gotten the impression that Burgum is not just looking at the positive cases and the %.  He specifically indicated that some states will be meeting the downward criteria for opening up, but will still be having significantly more positive tests and a high percentage of positive tests than ND.  

I suspect we'll be learning much more about the actual spread of COVID in the next couple weeks.  Maybe that will spur a systematic reopening.

So we are learning that the infectious rate is 50-85x higher than advertised.........

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8 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

I get the "criteria" but ND has had 2 days of 50 or more positive tests. Are we ramping up testing of asymptomatic people just to move the needle up....and continually add "2 more weeks"?

If we are still heading towards peak cases, it gives governors reason to extend for two weeks. In my opinion, the only way to know if we peaked is to have consistency with the amount of testing we do. To me this means testing more, or at least the same quantity every day, to confirm suspicions of asymptomatic spread, reaching the peak sooner. The whole mass testing event every 7 days will just skew/prolong the decision.

1 minute ago, UND1983 said:

See how this doesn't make sense?  They could play that game all summer into the fall - does anybody think the virus is going away?

This is why I questioned the vague guidance. Both for closing in the first place and for opening up. 

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11 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

So we are learning that the infectious rate is 50-85x higher than advertised.........

I suspect more "getting confirmation" than "learning".

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1 hour ago, homer said:

That interview was awful.  Fully agree with the mayor that at some point, people need to be allowed to make their own decision   I don’t have to go to Vegas if it suddenly a casino suddenly turns on their slot machines again   Based on economic info a fair chunk of the population doesn’t have money to go their anyhow   

My opinion is even after things open up it is going to be extremely challenging getting people who lost their jobs to actually go back to work and not for fear of getting sick.  

“The anger came from employees who’d determined they’d make more moneyby collecting unemployment benefits than their normal paychecks.”

Quote is from the article above.  She won’t be the first to feel this pain.  Not sure what motivation we have provided for people to actually go back to work.  

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Just now, Oxbow6 said:

So we are learning that the infectious rate is 50-85x higher than advertised.........

Keep in mind early results and testing are all incredibly crude (see the 2M projected deaths). This study was one of the first of its kind for COVID. The Stanford study that got the 50-85x infectious rate had severe selectivity bias. They got their participants from a facebook advertisement, who were located in a covid hot spot, and were able to reject participants from certain localities. 

Preliminary peer review has a lot of mixed responses, here is the most positive, non-biased one I found:
"The study confirms the widely-held belief that far more people than originally thought have been infected with the coronavirus, said Arthur Reingold, an epidemiology professor at UC Berkeley who was not involved in the study, but it doesn’t mean the shelter-in-place order will be lifted any time soon.

“The idea this would be a passport to going safely back to work and getting us up and running has two constraints: we do not know if antibodies protect you and for how long, and a very small percentage of the population even has antibodies,” he said.

Even with the adjusted rate of infection as found by the study, only 3% of the population has coronavirus – that means 97% does not. To reach herd immunity 50% or more of the population would have to be infected and recovered from coronavirus."

It is easier to poke holes in someone else's research than to conduct your own. Hopefully this leads to more immediate research, testing,  vetting, and scrutiny of serology with respect to COVID. 

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