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2020 Dumpster Fire (Enter at your own risk)

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1 hour ago, Old Fella said:

Have the 2020-2021 ticket packages been sent out?

I thought the email said it would be an online process this year. 

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17 hours ago, Redneksioux said:

If it’s not preventable then why test? Why close the business down?

flatten the curve i guess but when the curve starts to flatten shouldn't we go back to work? or wait til that curve goes down to zero in five months???

 

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4 hours ago, Redneksioux said:

If covid19 is such a minor blip when you look at the big picture, how can you explain the worldwide shortage on ppe and certain meds?

Most businesses order on a "just in time" need basis. Supply chains are geared to that so there really isnt any excess inventory.  When an event like this happens it throws the supply chain out of whack right on down to the raw materials to make said products.

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23 minutes ago, choyt3 said:

I thought the email said it would be an online process this year. 

Thank You.

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11 minutes ago, bison73 said:

Most businesses order on a "just in time" need basis. Supply chains are geared to that so there really isnt any excess inventory.  When an event like this happens it throws the supply chain out of whack right on down to the raw materials to make said products.

Narcotics have been a frustrating issue related to this.  There were already many manufacturers and distributors that wouldn't ship narcotics to NY because of an opioid tax that the state passed last year.  Why make less profit to sell to NY when you can make more profit selling to just about any other state?  In addition to that, the DEA puts limits on the amount of raw narcotic materials that manufacturers are allowed to process, essentially preventing them from ramping up production to meet the increased demand. 

Thankfully several healthcare professional societies were able to petition the DEA to temporarily loosen those restrictions on raw materials, but obviously there is a lag in the process of hospitals run low on meds -> people contact their societies to petition -> society petitions the DEA -> DEA actually agrees -> manufacturer ramps up production -> product actually makes it to the hospital.

There have been a lot of anxiety-ridden moments,  often using less than ideal medications, and not knowing if we would have enough supply to make it through the night.

As far as I know, there are two or three predominant medication distribution wholesalers across the nation.  They've been allocating meds based on previous usage - meaning a larger hospital in the midwest that currently has a minimal census would still get a larger supply of critical meds than a smaller hospital in NY now functioning at 140% capacity.  But the interesting thing now is that the wholesalers are getting bypassed on most of the critical meds.  Hospitals are working directly with the manufacturers, and manufacturers are distributing based on number of vented patients, etc.  It's definitely more work, cause now each hospital is dealing with however many manufacturers instead of one wholesaler, but it has been a game changer in terms of getting our hands on critical shortage medications.

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How essential was L&M Wind Power.

Over a 2 day period 100 positive for virus.

Testing done in GF.  7% positive.

 

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28 minutes ago, SIOUXFAN97 said:

flatten the curve i guess but when the curve starts to flatten shouldn't we go back to work? or wait til that curve goes down to zero in five months???

I've been saying for weeks that the lack of objective criteria for 'success' has done nothing but reduce "curve flattening" and "social distancing" to non-scientific, medically unsupported, populist drivel.

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5 minutes ago, Old Fella said:

How essential was L&M Wind Power.

Over a 2 day period 100 positive for virus.

Testing done in GF.  7% positive.

 

A lot of people have been asking about how essential LM is/was, but Governor Burgum said in the press conference yesterday that the feds (Office of Homeland Security) consider them to be essential, and as such they would have been operating regardless of what state they were in.

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As we play with treatment protocols, we will hopefully see more intubated patients recover.  The current rate of 20% in the NYC metro area is brutal.  But those recovered patients often struggle to return to normal.  I think this article does a decent job explaining some of the long term side effects of being intubated, especially for an extended period.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/next-coronavirus-nightmare-happens-icu-090134376.html

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How many different tests are out there?

Does ND have a lot of false negatives or others false positives?

ND has usually had a 2% to 3% test-positive rate (Edit: I looked it up. True number is 4%).

Quote

According to the Tracking Project’s figures, nearly one in five people who get tested for the coronavirus in the United States is found to have it. In other words, the country has what is called a “test-positivity rate” of nearly 20 percent.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/610132/

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5 minutes ago, NoiseInsideMyHead said:

I've been saying for weeks that the lack of objective criteria for 'success' has done nothing but reduce "curve flattening" and "social distancing" to non-scientific, medically unsupported, populist drivel.

The only objective criteria for success right now is our healthcare system not imploding. To say that curve flattening and social distancing is not medically supported is the true populist drivel. The theory of social distancing has been studied for at least the past century, especially since the outbreak of the Spanish Flu. A simple research journal search will show you that there has been at least 10,000 peer reviewed publications the subject.

Here is a high level summary of social distancing theory that could help you argue your point for why social distancing is moot for our epidemic.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2877723/

image.png.ea1baa93d2b5e4db09d543ba400ac898.png

 

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Just now, dynato said:

The only objective criteria for success right now is our healthcare system not imploding. To say that curve flattening and social distancing is not medically supported is the true populist drivel. The theory of social distancing has been studied for at least the past century, especially since the outbreak of the Spanish Flu. A simple research journal search will show you that there has been at least 10,000 peer reviewed publications the subject

And just how is "not imploding" objective, and more importantly, how does your proffered standard inform the relaxation of lockdown and stay at home orders?

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25 minutes ago, Old Fella said:

How essential was L&M Wind Power.

Over a 2 day period 100 positive for virus.

Testing done in GF.  7% positive.

 

if they were closed down for a month do you think all those people would have locked themselves in their houses and not gone anywhere to spread/catch the 'rona?  maybe it was a good thing they were still working instead of being on a month long paid vacation?...maybe instead of "just" a 100 we could have had 1000 cases?  who knows?

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6 minutes ago, Cratter said:

How many different tests are out there?

Does ND have a lot of false negatives or others false positives?

ND has usually had a 2% to 3% test-positive rate.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/610132/

424 tests were conducted as a response to the LM Windpower outbreak. 110 tests came back positive, results from 50 are still in progress. That is a rate of 25% minimum, which is more comparable to the national average. Keep in mind that the tests are likely only being administer to those with reasonable suspicion of having COVID. Selectivity bias plays a role here

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15 minutes ago, UND92,96 said:

Interesting article on how the controversial Swedish approach to the virus is going: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/sweden-says-controversial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective

I'm glad that the article mentions the several things specific to Sweden that make this approach more feasible for them.  I forgot who mentioned it back when we had the Germany vs US convo, but it isn't really appropriate to assume a protocol that works in one culture will work in another.  For their sakes, I hope this works for them in the long run.

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28 minutes ago, dynato said:

which is more comparable to the national average. 

To date, North Dakota has issued 13,630 tests.

585 have come back positive.

4% test positive rate.

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Just now, Cratter said:

To date, North Dakota has issued 13,630 tests.

585 have come back positive.

4% test positive rate.

All I can say is that toilet paper was practically sold out in our state before a case was even confirmed. Likely early on people were getting tested out of fear. The test positive rate will continue to climb as it spreads through our population. Especially with how prevalent in the population everyone thinks COVID is.

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1 minute ago, dynato said:

All I can say is that toilet paper was practically sold out in our state before a case was even confirmed. Likely early on people were getting tested out of fear. 

That would be the same nationwide and already built into the data.

Which wouldn't explain ND 4% vs suppose nationwide average of 20%.

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With Cuomo's desire to do widespread antibody testing in NY this week, this is a timely article about the issues with accuracy of the antibody tests.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/antibody-test-seen-as-key-to-reopening-country-does-not-yet-deliver/ar-BB12Swss?li=BBnb7Kz

For anyone not used to looking at biostats: 'sensitivity' refers to the ability of a test to find true positives.  So a test that has 80% sensitivity has a 1 in 5 chance of giving a negative result for someone who is actually positive.  On the flip side 'specificity' refers to the ability of a test to find true negatives.  So a test that has 80% specificity  has a 1 in 5 chance of giving a positive result for someone who is actually negative.

Most of the issues I've read about for the diagnostic covid testing are related to sensitivity- i.e the test giving a false negative.  Meanwhile most of the issues I've read about for the antibody testing are related to specificity- i.e the test giving a false positive.

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1 hour ago, bison73 said:

Most businesses order on a "just in time" need basis. Supply chains are geared to that so there really isnt any excess inventory.  When an event like this happens it throws the supply chain out of whack right on down to the raw materials to make said products.

Hence the need to flatten the curve and give the supply chain a chance to get ahead of a surge.  

The hard part now is figuring out when we are ready to open things up and how fast.

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Just now, Cratter said:

That would be the same nationwide and already built into the data.

To be fair, the other states have had more time than ours to buff out the initial curve making outliers negligible. To compare to national data, what isn't built in to the data is the time lag. Thus comparing recent testing data in ND, to the national average, allows for a better comparison. 

Starting from day 1 (40 days ago): Average positive cases/day = 14
Starting from day 30 (10 days ago): Average positive cases/day = 31
Starting from day 35 (5 days ago): Average positive cases/day = 49
Data from early on naturally becomes irrelevant.

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19 minutes ago, dynato said:

To be fair, the other states have had more time than ours to buff out the initial curve making outliers negligible.

So you're saying North Dakotas first test was how many days behind the national average?

 

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