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Pairwise & Bracketology 2020


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20 minutes ago, squirtcoach said:

Looking at the 4 teams in the running for the last #1 seed and their RPI and PWR, it still looks to me that the NCHC frozen faceoff game between DU and UMD will be for “which team gets the last change in Loveland”.  And of course, for a shot at the University of North Dakota team Saturday night.

 

i am sure if I dusted off my monte carlo statistics program I could tell you the probability.

Western Michigan might have something to say about that.  W. Michigan might be 3 seed

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The only reason attendance will suck again at the regional sites is because they are off campus. The best regional I ever attended was the Holy Cross regional at the Ralph. Probably the best college a

3 minutes ago, SiouxFanatic said:

Oh my, that scenario giving me flashback of 03-04 regional...:unsure: Hard pass!

Almost exactly the same.
That year, we didn't lose to DU all year.  And then we get placed in their regional and lose 1-0 in the regional final.
This year, we haven't lost to DU...the last thing I want is to get placed in Loveland and hope that we could beat them yet again.

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6 minutes ago, brianvf said:

Almost exactly the same.
That year, we didn't lose to DU all year.  And then we get placed in their regional and lose 1-0 in the regional final.
This year, we haven't lost to DU...the last thing I want is to get placed in Loveland and hope that we could beat them yet again.

Could not agree more. But damnit it could happen 

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2 minutes ago, sioux rube said:

Could not agree more. But damnit it could happen 

DU is still at #5 in the PWR, but man the RPI is super close going down the line.
Denver does have the easiest remaining schedule with Miami/SCSU/CC left, so they should be able to right the ship and keep their PWR up there.  I hope.

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A new week, a new guess.  Bemidji up to 12th,  current conference leaders given auto-bids (AIC , Minn).  Cornell placed NE as ECAC host.  Tried to maintain bracket integrity.  Swapped UMass and Clarkson to avoid 1st round conflict.

Northeast - Albany
1) Cornell
2) BC
3) ASU
4) Maine

East-Worcester
1) North Dakota
2) UMass
3) Bemidji
4) AIC

Midwest - Allentown
1) Mankato
2) Clarkson
3) Penn State
4) Minnesota

West - Loveland
1) Duluth
2) Denver
3) Northeastern
4) Ohio State

I could see the committee swapping Minn with Maine or AIC.... 

 

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15 minutes ago, Fader said:

A new week, a new guess.  Bemidji up to 12th,  current conference leaders given auto-bids (AIC , Minn).  Cornell placed NE as ECAC host.  Tried to maintain bracket integrity.  Swapped UMass and Clarkson to avoid 1st round conflict.

 

Northeast - Albany
1) Cornell
2) BC
3) ASU
4) Maine
 
East-Worcester
1) North Dakota
2) Clarkson
3) Northeastern
4) AIC
 
Midwest - Allentown
1) Mankato
2) Clarkson
3) Penn State
4) Minnesota
 
West - Loveland
1) Duluth
2) Denver
3) Bemidji St
4) Ohio State

Minnesota 16 pairwise in both CNN & USCO.

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36 minutes ago, Clark17 said:

NE

1 UND 16 AIC

8 Mass 12 B - State 

 

East

3 Cornell 14 Maine

6 BC 11 ASU

 

 

 

 

 

Curious to your thoughts on sending Cornell to the East rather than NE.  Ithaca is closer to Albany and ECAC is the host at the regional.  Attendance?

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56 minutes ago, Clark17 said:

Couple games tonight, not sure what the Mich/Mich State game does to PairWise and the Gophers current spot.   I think the Gophers will win the Big 10 tournament.

 

 

Actually the games tonight are very interesting for the teams in the 15-18 spots of the Pairwise.  Just playing around with the calculator at CHN shows these results:

CC and Mich St win

15 MN

16 WMU

17 Mass-Lowell

CC and Michigan win

15 WMU

16 Mass-Lowell

17 MN

AF and Mich St win

15 Mass-Lowell

16 MN

17 Quinnipiac

18 WMU

AF and Michigan win

15 Mass-Lowell

16 MN

17 WMU

18 Quinnipiac

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, SJHovey said:

Actually the games tonight are very interesting for the teams in the 15-18 spots of the Pairwise.  Just playing around with the calculator at CHN shows these results:

CC and Mich St win

15 MN

16 WMU

17 Mass-Lowell

CC and Michigan win

15 WMU

16 Mass-Lowell

17 MN

AF and Mich St win

15 Mass-Lowell

16 MN

17 Quinnipiac

18 WMU

AF and Michigan win

15 Mass-Lowell

16 MN

17 WMU

18 Quinnipiac

 

 

 

Interesting, didn’t know they have Pairwise calculator.  I will have to take a look.  

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Just now, Kab said:

For those in the know what’s the best guess on the number of teams that make the tourney not in the top 16 because they win their conference tourney

I personally don't think it will be that many.  Atlantic Hockey, obviously.

The ECAC and WCHA are the most vulnerable because they only have two at large qualifiers right now, which means that if any other team wins the tournament, that's another spot.

Right now the B1G really only has PSU and Ohio St. as qualifiers with Minnesota on the bubble, but I think that if Minnesota, Michigan or maybe even Michigan St played their way into a conference title, they'd also probably be in the top 15.

Same for WMU in the NCHC.

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14 minutes ago, SJHovey said:

I personally don't think it will be that many.  Atlantic Hockey, obviously.

The ECAC and WCHA are the most vulnerable because they only have two at large qualifiers right now, which means that if any other team wins the tournament, that's another spot.

Right now the B1G really only has PSU and Ohio St. as qualifiers with Minnesota on the bubble, but I think that if Minnesota, Michigan or maybe even Michigan St played their way into a conference title, they'd also probably be in the top 15.

Same for WMU in the NCHC.

I think The Ohio State University is working their way out in my opinion.  We'll see I guess.  I wonder if Penn. could find themselves in a bad spot still?  That would change everything regarding regional placement.  
 

I should try the calculator and see.  

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17 minutes ago, Fader said:

So they are. :)   Ooops,  Easily confused these days I guess.  At least I did have the cities right.

You and I are on the same page for the most part.  I don’t think they would swap 2 seeds over a 3 seed swap if available but who knows?  

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4 minutes ago, Clark17 said:

You and I are on the same page for the most part.  I don’t think they would swap 2 seeds over a 3 seed swap if available but who knows?  

You are probably correct on that one,   I had Clarkson in my original post twice,  fixing that that I ended up swapping 3 seeds instead of the 2 as well.

 

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