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Far too early, but what the hell...Bracketology


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1 hour ago, franchise said:

Is it still too far out to have any kind of idea how many wins we need to be in decent position?  Obviously a lot of factors can play in, but...

Obviously winning takes care of everything.

10 regular season games

2-3 playoff games

2 conference tournament games

9 wins would be a lock I think.

8 wins would be fairly safe

win 7 of 13(not make St. Paul) and it could get interesting.

If you look at teams behind us, most will have problems flipping comparisons against us while we could flip a couple of those in front of us.

#12 North Dakota — comparisons won: 48

Legend for comparisons:
Wins the comparison Loses the comparison Ties the comparison No comparison
        Common Opponents  
PWR Team PWC RPI Sum of Win% Record Head to Head
1t Notre Dame 0-2 .5435*.6049* 2.250 — 2.500 4-3-1 — 6-3-1 0-0-0
1t Cornell 1-1 .5435*.5977* 1.750 — 1.500 3-0-1 — 2-1-0 0-0-0
3 St. Cloud State 0-3 .5435* — .5941 3.000 — 4.000 6-6-0 — 8-4-0 0-1-1
4t Clarkson 0-1 .5435*.5864* 2.750 — 2.750 5-2-1 — 5-2-1 0-0-0
4t Denver 1-3 .5435* — .5797 3.000 — 4.000 5-5-2 — 7-3-2 1-1-0
6 Minnesota State 0-2 .5435*.5726* 1.750 — 3.000 2-3-3 — 6-2-0 0-0-0
7 Ohio State 0-2 .5435* — .5704 1.250 — 1.500 2-1-1 — 3-1-0 0-0-0
8 Western Michigan 2-2 .5435* — .5479 2.500 — 4.000 4-6-2 — 8-4-0 2-0-0
9t Minnesota 1-3 .5435* — .5461 1.250 — 2.000 1-4-3 — 3-3-0 1-1-0
9t Providence 0-2 .5435* — .5454 1.750 — 2.000 3-0-1 — 3-0-0 0-0-0
11 Minnesota-Duluth 1-3 .5435* — .5451 4.750 — 3.750 8-5-3 — 6-8-1 0-2-0
12 North Dakota          
13 Northeastern 1-0 .5435* — .5405 0.000 — 0.000 0-0-0 — 0-0-0 0-0-0
14 Nebraska-Omaha 3-1 .5435* — .5393 3.250 — 3.000 5-6-3 — 6-8-0 1-1-0
15 Michigan 2-0 .5435* — .5389 2.250 — 2.125 4-1-1 — 4-1-2 0-0-0
16 Penn State 1-0 .5435* — .5356 2.250 — 2.250 4-1-1 — 3-1-1 0-0-0
17t Boston College 2-0 .5435* — .5261 1.500 — 0.000 2-2-2 — 0-4-0 0-0-0
17t Harvard 1-1 .5435* — .5250 1.750 — 2.000 3-2-1 — 2-2-0 0-0-0
19 Northern Michigan 2-0 .5435* — .5249 2.000 — 1.000 3-1-2 — 1-3-2 0-0-0
20t Bowling Green 2-0 .5435* — .5245 3.250 — 2.000 5-0-3 — 3-3-2 0-0-0
20t Wisconsin 3-0 .5435* — .5212 1.500 — 1.000 3-1-0 — 2-2-0 1-0-1
22t Bemidji State 2-1 .5435* — .5188 0.750 — 1.750 1-2-1 — 3-0-1 1-0-1
22t Miami 3-0 .5435* — .5185 2.500 — 2.000 5-5-0 — 4-6-0 1-0-1
24 Boston University 1-1 .5435* — .5110 0.750 — 1.000 1-2-1 — 1-1-0 0-0-0
25 Maine 2-0 .5435* — .5105 0.750 — 0.500 1-2-1 — 1-3-0 0-0-0
26 Colorado College 3-1 .5435* — .5093 3.750 — 3.000 6-5-3 — 5-7-2

1-1-0

 

 

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44 minutes ago, chicofelipe said:

Well as few as 4 out of the last 10 could put us at #12, if they are the right 4.

Splitting every remaining series gets us to 5. Maybe I’m optimistic about us sweeping CC, Omaha, or Miami though... (not all of them, but I think we sweep at least one of them) 

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12 minutes ago, stoneySIOUX said:

Getting 7 makes us a lock, as I'm reading that. Still can get in with decent probability at 6 and 5 wins.

I know what you're saying, though:(

It's much more fun during the years we are calculating how to get a 1 seed

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Just now, franchise said:

My bad. Looked too fast and didn't comprehend that 1-4 were 1 seeds. Was looking that we couldn't get the top seed. Long day I guess

Yeah I was wondering if that’s what you were thinking, but I didn’t know if you were referring to A 1 seed or the overall 1 seed. 

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2 hours ago, cberkas said:

History says that UND should win it this year.

 

2 hours ago, fightingsioux4life said:

It is the one title that has eluded us since we joined the NCHC.

I think he's alluding to the fact that the previous year's loser of the title game won the title the next year. Right, cberkas?

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Current take.....

Allentown, PA

1-Notre Dame* vs. 31-Canisius*

8-UNO vs. 9-Providence

 

Bridgeport, CT

2-Cornell* vs. 20-BC*

7-Mankato vs. 10-UMD

 

Sioux Falls, SD

3-SCSU vs. 18-NMU*

6-Ohio St. vs. 12-UND

 

Worcester, MA

4-Clarkson vs. 13-WMU

5-Denver* vs. 11-Minnesota

Last 4 out

14-Northeastern

15-Penn St.

16-Michigan

17-Bowling Green

*--leading conference so currently assigning auto-bid

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I'm far more interested in just getting in at this point.

Until I saw the last four outcomes I would not have believed Gardner being out would have that large of an impact. And then toss in no Smith and no Jones and no Bast on Saturday. I'm impressed they got the tie. 

All that said, back to my key point: just getting in. 

Jim Dahl's "how many wins to finish at X in PWR" was just updated. Seems UND must essentially go "500" in the last eight to say PWR14 or higher. Actually, I'd rather see them go 5-3 and assure no lower than PWR12 at season's end. Why? College hockey is pretty "flat" (even) this year; a couple surprise tourney-winner-autobids won't surprise me this year. 

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