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Conference Realignments - Take 2


The Sicatoka
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40 minutes ago, ndsutibig12 said:

I think  ndsu is 15 years ahead.  NDSU has been building toward this since before coach Bohl.

As college football consolidates NDSU will be one of the few FCS programs needed in the FBS, probably MWC or a greatly changed Big 12.  Maybe, as some think a new conference.  

A new conference with FCS schools is UNDs best chance, if the university actually has the will to do it  

The region is growing. The old D2 NCC schools are now D1 playing FCS because they grew into it.   It will be the same for FBS.  To be realistic, the only school ready to make that jump is NDSU.

Why

  • fargos growing population and prominence.
  • NDSUs generational dominance of regional college football including D2 and FCS
  • their demonstrated ability to compete with top FBS programs which has built them a huge regional audience and a solid national following.
  • Their program resembles an FBS football program in all phases including recruiting, fund raising and coaching. 
  • They have hosted Gameday twice!
  • Their stadium is famous, adequate and can add a large number of suits and several thousand seats.   They own 100% of the ticket revenues.
  • For the next 10-15 years UND gives half of football ticket revenues of a much smaller arena to pay for the hockey rink.  Tough to support an FBS program when you only have claim to revenue from 6,000 seats half of which have been empty for 10 years.
  • Media deals
  • NDSU fans travel and spend money much to the delight of Frisco and the FBS cities conquered  by the bison.

If UND goes undefeated in the scheduled FBS games they will take a big step toward NDSU’s current football status.  Financially UND has been weakened by the expensive and abandoned foray into the big sky  Revenues from the FCS games is much needed  

 

 


 

 

 

 

You didn't even spell your own username correctly.

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It's hard to deny that NDSU isn't ready to make the jump. If your argument is fan support / waiting lists, then you really have nothing. Let's all agree they have the talent / fan support to make the jump, that's undeniable. It all comes down to getting the invite. I'm hope I'm right here and others have said it, but it ultimately comes down to geography. You start to go down the list of MW schools and just ask your self, why would they want NDSU? Outside of Football dominance, you'd need to start over on your list @ndsutibig12 as the rest nobody cares about, truly. It's a really weird situation, they are clearly ready in almost every aspect they can control, but geography is the big one. I would say the stadium situation is an issue as well, to a lesser degree, enrollment. So it's not necessarily a one issue situation, but there's no denying they are light years ahead of UND in the conversation.

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2 hours ago, Bison Dan said:

Increased season ticket holders from 12500 to 13200 - 200 season tickets left.  Do you know how dumb you sound bitching about a waiting list?  By the way how's the hawkers doing for tickets?  Don't know why MWC contacted Larson if that was true.  Our game in 23 with EWU at US Bank Stadium will draw 40-50K something you guys only dream about.  Things going back to normal in Fargo -  how about you guys?

So yes or no on an over/under for NDSU sellouts this year? With your confidence, I assume we can set the line at 5.5 games.
We'll split your estimate on the US Bank game as well and I'll happily take the under.

 

 

  

6 minutes ago, AJS said:

It's hard to deny that NDSU isn't ready to make the jump. If your argument is fan support / waiting lists, then you really have nothing. Let's all agree they have the talent / fan support to make the jump, that's undeniable. It all comes down to getting the invite. I'm hope I'm right here and others have said it, but it ultimately comes down to geography. You start to go down the list of MW schools and just ask your self, why would they want NDSU? Outside of Football dominance, you'd need to start over on your list @ndsutibig12 as the rest nobody cares about, truly. It's a really weird situation, they are clearly ready in almost every aspect they can control, but geography is the big one. I would say the stadium situation is an issue as well, to a lesser degree, enrollment. So it's not necessarily a one issue situation, but there's no denying they are light years ahead of UND in the conversation.

My point on the attendance/wait list is that the some of the shine has definitely worn off. The demand has dropped significantly from 4-5 years ago. And again, I admitted they are still in an enviable position over the large majority of the FCS.

You're point about football performance being the only thing on the list of why they would be invited is absolutely spot on. Geography is a huge hindrance, enrollment and research performance have both been declining, they would have a large Title IX issue to address and they don't bring any sort of TV/media/recruiting area benefit to the table, which means adding them to the conference is a net negative to the revenue split. If it was about on the field performance only, we're having a different conversation. However the reality is, that probably doesn't even crack the top 5 things conferences are looking at. 

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1 hour ago, UNDBIZ said:

UND fans have said something very similar to this before.

No they didn't.  I was speaking of unfamiliarity and quickly learning how boring the MWC is.  The move to D1 was completely different than this and people severely overestimated the quality of play at the FCS and Summit level.  

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18 hours ago, The Sicatoka said:

If they were, they were talking to Montana also. 

Montana State is almost double in enrollment and their program isn’t a slouch in football either. Both have stadiums ready for FBS. I bet the two schools move up as a package deal.

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4 hours ago, Bison Dan said:

Increased season ticket holders from 12500 to 13200 - 200 season tickets left.  Do you know how dumb you sound bitching about a waiting list?  By the way how's the hawkers doing for tickets?  Don't know why MWC contacted Larson if that was true.  Our game in 23 with EWU at US Bank Stadium will draw 40-50K something you guys only dream about.  Things going back to normal in Fargo -  how about you guys?

why are you on this forum again? If UND is so beneath NdSU why do you feel a need to come on here and brag?

I think most UND fans would gladly take NDSU’s success and season ticket numbers but you cannot deny that your fan base is falling off and getting less interested for many reasons. The rest of NDSu outside of their football program is a dump!

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2 hours ago, AJS said:

It's hard to deny that NDSU isn't ready to make the jump. If your argument is fan support / waiting lists, then you really have nothing. Let's all agree they have the talent / fan support to make the jump, that's undeniable. It all comes down to getting the invite. I'm hope I'm right here and others have said it, but it ultimately comes down to geography. You start to go down the list of MW schools and just ask your self, why would they want NDSU? Outside of Football dominance, you'd need to start over on your list @ndsutibig12 as the rest nobody cares about, truly. It's a really weird situation, they are clearly ready in almost every aspect they can control, but geography is the big one. I would say the stadium situation is an issue as well, to a lesser degree, enrollment. So it's not necessarily a one issue situation, but there's no denying they are light years ahead of UND in the conversation.

The MW would love to add NDSU for football but traveling to Fargo for women’s soccer or men’s cross country is a ton of extra $$$$$ these conference members cannot afford to spend. They will just add the Montanans and be better off without the travel

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2 minutes ago, Sioux>Bison said:

 

 

why are you on this forum again? If UND is so beneath NdSU why do you feel a need to come on here and brag?

I think most UND fans would gladly take NDSU’s success and season ticket numbers but you cannot deny that your fan base is falling off and getting less interested for many reasons. The rest of NDSu outside of their football program is a dump!

I think that's true for every teams fan base, right?  Dump yeah right - Kind of like outside of your hockey team.

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3 hours ago, ndsutibig12 said:

 

If UND goes undefeated in the scheduled FBS games they will take a big step toward NDSU’s current football status.  Financially UND has been weakened by the expensive and abandoned foray into the big sky  Revenues from the FCS games is much needed  

 

 


 

 

 

 

Moving up to FBS isn’t just about football, and I don’t think any smart people are arguing that nDSU football couldn’t move to a G5 conference and not be successful. These conferences are not recruiting schools to join solely on how good their football program is. If so they should kick many of their schools out, but why don’t they????? It’s more than just football.

So what are these big $$$$$ media deals that nDSU is going to bring to the MW?

So if UND was so financially weakened by moving to the Big Sky how would that be any different than nDSU moving to the Mountain West????? The travel cost for football would be well worth it but what about the rest of the sports…… sorry you have to add more women’s sports and not drop more of them………

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2 hours ago, jdub27 said:

So yes or no on an over/under for NDSU sellouts this year? With your confidence, I assume we can set the line at 5.5 games.
We'll split your estimate on the US Bank game as well and I'll happily take the under.

 

 

  

My point on the attendance/wait list is that the some of the shine has definitely worn off. The demand has dropped significantly from 4-5 years ago. And again, I admitted they are still in an enviable position over the large majority of the FCS.

You're point about football performance being the only thing on the list of why they would be invited is absolutely spot on. Geography is a huge hindrance, enrollment and research performance have both been declining, they would have a large Title IX issue to address and they don't bring any sort of TV/media/recruiting area benefit to the table, which means adding them to the conference is a net negative to the revenue split. If it was about on the field performance only, we're having a different conversation. However the reality is, that probably doesn't even crack the top 5 things conferences are looking at. 

Define sell-out. They got a terrible home schedule this year. If I was in town, I am not sure I'd go to any. Maybe folks will go back since they lost a year of sports.

The US Bank game will probably sell a ton of tickets. They got 34K for Butler. I'm guessing they'll move more tickets for a real game at an NFL stadium. 

As far as moving up, that would be a big shot in the arm. More P5 games, regular games with solid programs. A lot of casual, passive,  and potential fans are not following anymore for obvious reasons.  Then add in that NCAA football video games are coming back. Great way to engage with kids. 

I hope it happens but I'm not holding my breath. 

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20 minutes ago, Sioux>Bison said:

 sorry you have to add more women’s sports and not drop more of them………

I'm not sure ndsu has ever dropped a ladies sport? 

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43 minutes ago, JohnboyND7 said:

Define sell-out. They got a terrible home schedule this year. If I was in town, I am not sure I'd go to any. Maybe folks will go back since they lost a year of sports.

The US Bank game will probably sell a ton of tickets. They got 34K for Butler. I'm guessing they'll move more tickets for a real game at an NFL stadium. 

As far as moving up, that would be a big shot in the arm. More P5 games, regular games with solid programs. A lot of casual, passive,  and potential fans are not following anymore for obvious reasons.  Then add in that NCAA football video games are coming back. Great way to engage with kids. 

I hope it happens but I'm not holding my breath. 

What part are you confused about? The place holds 18,700 for football. Start from there.
In 2019, they topped 18,000 in 5 out of 9 games counting the playoffs (and not by much in the 5th one). If ticket demand is what is being claimed, the schedule shouldn't matter (though we both know that is a lie).

I'm aware of what they had for Butler. I don't see an extra 10-15,000 for this game, but maybe I'm wrong about it. 

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2 hours ago, jdub27 said:

What part are you confused about? The place holds 18,700 for football. Start from there.
In 2019, they topped 18,000 in 5 out of 9 games counting the playoffs (and not by much in the 5th one). If ticket demand is what is being claimed, the schedule shouldn't matter (though we both know that is a lie).

I'm aware of what they had for Butler. I don't see an extra 10-15,000 for this game, but maybe I'm wrong about it. 

NDSU is having a similar problem to UND with students not showing up.  This comparison here is between NDSU football and UND hockey, to be specific.  Both have top programs in the country and both are having student attendance issues.  I believe NDSU recently removed one of their student sections like UND did for hockey at the Ralph.  A lack of students could partially account for reduced attendance.  I don't have a point here - it's just an interesting comparison to me.  I think part of NDSU's issue is that their success has come almost too easy, which makes winning less rewarding, which can cause complacency and also hinder attendance.  This is part of the reason I like following UND football more than hockey... a lot of people like rooting for an underdog, or at least accomplishing a feat that isn't pretty much pre determined.

In regard to the Fargo Dome, I don't think a new stadium is needed for NDSU to be successful at the FBS level.  It provides a HUGE home field advantage, and ticket scarcity in comparison to a new stadium allows NDSU to support higher ticket prices.  If it's hard to get a ticket, people are more likely to go when they get the chance as well.  Just look at the dozens of half empty FBS stadiums around the country to prove my point... a lot of these schools are also selling tickets for about half the price.  NDSU doesnt need the bigger stadium when their annual ticket sales are already much higher than most G5 schools as it is.  They could instead take that stadium money and put it into travel costs and women's sports.  

The Dakota schools, Montanas, UNI, Illinois State all have athletic departments that fit the FBS profile.  These schools generate more ticket sales and donations on average than most G5 schools, the main difference is the smaller buy-game payouts, no CFB championship revenue, and no TV deal.  If any of these schools move FBS, they will always have conference stability issues unless they are in the same conference.  They are all very similar schools in the North, and the only reason they aren't all FBS already is Geography.  The rivalries are important for NDSU's fan base as well.  The Dakotas playing together at the same level as the G5 schools is inevitable - it may not happen tomorrow, but geography and finances = G5... together, though it may take ten plus years to play out.

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49 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

What part are you confused about? The place holds 18,700 for football. Start from there.
In 2019, they topped 18,000 in 5 out of 9 games counting the playoffs (and not by much in the 5th one). If ticket demand is what is being claimed, the schedule shouldn't matter (though we both know that is a lie).

I'm aware of what they had for Butler. I don't see an extra 10-15,000 for this game, but maybe I'm wrong about it. 

 Are we counting tickets sold or butts in seats? They could very well have 17,000 attend a game that sold 18,700 tickets.

I dont think ticket demand is anywhere resembling what it was 7 or 8 years ago. But having neither UND or SDSU on the home schedule makes it pretty lame by default.

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40 minutes ago, nodak651 said:

NDSU is having a similar problem to UND with students not showing up.  This comparison here is between NDSU football and UND hockey, to be specific.  Both have top programs in the country and both are having student attendance issues.  I believe NDSU recently removed one of their student sections like UND did for hockey at the Ralph.  A lack of students could partially account for reduced attendance.  I don't have a point here - it's just an interesting comparison to me.  I think part of NDSU's issue is that their success has come almost too easy, which makes winning less rewarding, which can cause complacency and also hinder attendance.  This is part of the reason I like following UND football more than hockey... a lot of people like rooting for an underdog, or at least accomplishing a feat that isn't pretty much pre determined.

In regard to the Fargo Dome, I don't think a new stadium is needed for NDSU to be successful at the FBS level.  It provides a HUGE home field advantage, and ticket scarcity in comparison to a new stadium allows NDSU to support higher ticket prices.  If it's hard to get a ticket, people are more likely to go when they get the chance as well.  Just look at the dozens of half empty FBS stadiums around the country to prove my point... a lot of these schools are also selling tickets for about half the price.  NDSU doesnt need the bigger stadium when their annual ticket sales are already much higher than most G5 schools as it is.  They could instead take that stadium money and put it into travel costs and women's sports.  

The Dakota schools, Montanas, UNI, Illinois State all have athletic departments that fit the FBS profile.  These schools generate more ticket sales and donations on average than most G5 schools, the main difference is the smaller buy-game payouts, no CFB championship revenue, and no TV deal.  If any of these schools move FBS, they will always have conference stability issues unless they are in the same conference.  They are all very similar schools in the North, and the only reason they aren't all FBS already is Geography.  The rivalries are important for NDSU's fan base as well.  The Dakotas playing together at the same level as the G5 schools is inevitable - it may not happen tomorrow, but geography and finances = G5... together, though it may take ten plus years to play out.

Very well said across the board.
I do think that NDSU (and UND hockey for that matter) have either hit the limit on what they can charge for single game tickets or possibly even surpassed it and are going to have to bring it back down a bit. There will be obvious exceptions (UND, SDSU for NDSU and UM for UND) but I think they've went about as high as they can. I don't really think either program has a lot of room to increase ticket prices much more other than UND might have a bit of room at the season ticket level in the lower bowl and NDSU might in their cheaper seats. The secondary market for both programs has fallen off a cliff the last few seasons (pre-Covid) which speaks alot to the realization people are coming to about watching games at home for significantly less money and hassle.

 

27 minutes ago, JohnboyND7 said:

Are we counting tickets sold or butts in seats? They could very well have 17,000 attend a game that sold 18,700 tickets.

I dont think ticket demand is anywhere resembling what it was 7 or 8 years ago. But having neither UND or SDSU on the home schedule makes it pretty lame by default.

I'm just going off the "official" numbers reported by NDSU. I have a strong suspicion you will be able to walk up and buy tickets to every single game outside of maybe homecoming this year, which oddly enough is their best opponent on the home schedule.

I don't disagree on the quality of home schedule but if the demand is busting at the seams like others are claiming, it shouldn't matter, it should be full every game. Turns out that isn't so accurate.

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The sports world in Fargo may be prepared to go FBS but i don't think general public is prepared to go or on the political side yet. The football program  probably make the jump but the cost of moving all other sports to FBS conference i don't think there is enough money or schools in those conferences don't want to have to travel to North Dakota. Und proved this with there time in Big Sky conference the costs of travel and other schools soon wanted UND to leave as much as UND needed to leave.  Add in that NDSU state affairs right now with declining enrolments and less research dollars and forced change in presidents coming i don't see where NDSU makes the shift to FBS. Fargo likes to think they will be leaders from FCS moving up to next level but like number of posts before we as region lack population and economics of moving up a division in college sports. Only way it may work is if only the Football program moves up but here again economics i still think makes this difficult jump. The move FBS will not mean like it was for FCS you had a chance to play for national title but move to FBS will be one smaller schools where chance of playing for national title will be almost zero but just for New Years bowl game and not one of the top bowl games but just a bowl game. I think this will be hard for casual fan to get handle on because they understand winning something on national basis but for bowl game i don't think it carries like playing for national championship. If they do only go FBS for football there other sports just become even more taxed for revenue and fan following in essence they become even more than UND with one sport dominant school. I think alot of NDSU hard fans may be disappointed they don't make this next step and for sure local media in Fargo but i don't think the economics will ever support this move  at this time. If you have my guess is the top conferences and schools will soon break off from NCAA for same reason why they have formed up into their power conferences because they are not going to want to support bottom half of schools with money.

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Random Factoid:
There's a 231 page (page) thread "Bison Fatigue" at the NDSU board talking about and how too much winning has hurt interest. 

Winning is a good problem to have, but it also numbs the fan base to just expect it and to lose sight of how extraordinary sustained winning or an NCAA championship, any sport, is. 

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1 hour ago, nodak651 said:

The Dakotas playing together at the same level as the G5 schools is inevitable - it may not happen tomorrow, but geography and finances = G5... together, though it may take ten plus years to play out.

I've long said the west needs the equivalent of the east's FBS Mid America Conference*. A conglomeration of the Montanas, Dakotas, and a couple Big Sky teams could've filled that role. 

But with reorganization happening, who knows if that role will still be there to fill. 

 

*EAST is B1G and SEC and ACC, then AAC, then MAC, then rest of G5
WEST is PAC12 and Big XII, then MWC, then < gaping hole here > 

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25 minutes ago, ND-fan said:

The sports world in Fargo may be prepared to go FBS but i don't think general public is prepared to go or on the political side yet. The football program  probably make the jump but the cost of moving all other sports to FBS conference i don't think there is enough money or schools in those conferences don't want to have to travel to North Dakota. Und proved this with there time in Big Sky conference the costs of travel and other schools soon wanted UND to leave as much as UND needed to leave.  Add in that NDSU state affairs right now with declining enrolments and less research dollars and forced change in presidents coming i don't see where NDSU makes the shift to FBS. Fargo likes to think they will be leaders from FCS moving up to next level but like number of posts before we as region lack population and economics of moving up a division in college sports. Only way it may work is if only the Football program moves up but here again economics i still think makes this difficult jump. The move FBS will not mean like it was for FCS you had a chance to play for national title but move to FBS will be one smaller schools where chance of playing for national title will be almost zero but just for New Years bowl game and not one of the top bowl games but just a bowl game. I think this will be hard for casual fan to get handle on because they understand winning something on national basis but for bowl game i don't think it carries like playing for national championship. If they do only go FBS for football there other sports just become even more taxed for revenue and fan following in essence they become even more than UND with one sport dominant school. I think alot of NDSU hard fans may be disappointed they don't make this next step and for sure local media in Fargo but i don't think the economics will ever support this move  at this time. If you have my guess is the top conferences and schools will soon break off from NCAA for same reason why they have formed up into their power conferences because they are not going to want to support bottom half of schools with money.

This is the same stuff that was said when NDSU went FCS.  As far as the NC - been there done that, multiple times.  Playing G5 and P5 teams are what most fans want now.

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8 minutes ago, Bison Dan said:

This is the same stuff that was said when NDSU went FCS.  As far as the NC - been there done that, multiple times.  Playing G5 and P5 teams are what most fans want now.

NDSU already allocates almost 2/3's of their scholarship money and athletic opportunities to the men's side.
What additional women's sports do these fans want to see to help balance that out?

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15 minutes ago, Bison Dan said:

This is the same stuff that was said when NDSU went FCS.  As far as the NC - been there done that, multiple times.  Playing G5 and P5 teams are what most fans want now.

Back in the day people severely overestimated how it would work to "go D1".  They related it to playing North Carolina in basketball, Texas in baseball - every year.  Not the Summit League and FCS football.  Then UND went and beat UNI in 2006 and people figured it out pretty quick that it wasn't Alabama and Ohio State. 

Which is why I say now that leaving to go FBS and play in the MWC is not that big of a deal and would be very underwhelming for any FCS fanbase.  The most excitement would in the first 4 non-conference games.

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