Walsh Hall
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Posts posted by Walsh Hall
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3 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:
Sounds great. I'll put dlsiouxfan in charge of garbage collection/disposal......and entertainment. He'll be performing his famous General Patton impersonation.
I'll put you in change of tending to the Jiffy Jon because one POS knows another. You'll need to wipe the door handle down after everyone licks it as well.
Oh wait...... you're not available to work my party tonight. You're still washing yzerman's fleet of cars.
Put Old Fella in charge of masks. He seems to know his stuff.
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12 minutes ago, Redneksioux said:
Our population is 66% greater than 1968.
But covid19 is on currently on pace to be 500% more deadly than the Hong Kong flu was to US residents.
The writer might as well have been comparing osteosarcoma to rhinovirus.
How were the deaths computed for both? Apples at apples? Based on how the deaths are reported for Covid the numbers are clearly overstated. Whether it was the same for the HHF I don’t know, but it certainly was much harder on young folks.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/lessons-to-be-learned-from-1957-pandemic/
For your 500% greater total, I’ll take the under. For the unemployment numbers next week, I’ll continue to cash on the over.
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1 hour ago, dynato said:
I have screens on all my windows. It helps keep out most bugs, however some bugs can still make it into the house. Other people can choose not to have screens on their windows. They will just have more bugs getting into their homes when they have their windows open.
To stay with the trend of horrible analogies... the U.S. had a Frazee in goal. A Frazee helps keep out most pucks, however some pucks can still make it into the goal. Other people can choose not to have a Frazee in the goal. Frazee is a sieve and everything shot by a Toews goes right through him into the goal. Having a Frazee in the goal really makes no difference when facing a Toews.
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14 minutes ago, dynato said:Models are not a belief system. They are just numbers and variables thrown into equations and then onto a chart with a list of assumptions. If you think they are wrong, prove it. If you can't prove they are wrong, then you are nothing but a conspiracy theorist.
They have consistently proven themselves wrong. Why is it that they are always wrong, and always wrong the same way?
I understand that this business isnt an exact science. I’d just expect that they’d be wrong as many time on the high side as the low side. If you are wrong every single time on the same side you have no credibility. That indicates a “belief system” and an agenda.
Check these clowns‘ estimates on Ebola, SARS... 1.7 millions deaths from Ebola? Oops, it was actually 2.
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3 minutes ago, NoiseInsideMyHead said:
We should have adopted The Price is Right model...all projections have to be close without going over. #ShowcaseShowdown
In that analogy all the contestants would be guessing $50,000 for a dorm fridge and standing there with a confused look on their faces.
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5 minutes ago, dynato said:Okay. You were undeniably wrong on several interpretations, dates, and numbers of the MN model you do not care about. If it was copy and past from forum communications, then they were undeniably wrong on several interpretations, dates, and numbers. You need to either post your source so I can fault them instead or check your sources better.
Some models are useful, some aren't. CDC tracks all models for a better forecast. Again, a lot of variables, but we need something to reference and will never go in blind.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.htmlIs the Harvard model which plainly states that ND can open up and should have never shut down trash too?
https://www.kfyrtv.com/content/news/Harvard-study-says-ND-doing-enough-testing-to-control-pandemic-spread-570316681.htmlLet me ask you, what are your projections for a global pandemic with no preventative measures in place for a state with a population of 7 million and a metro population of 3.4 million people? On what basis did you arrive to that number? Will any number be 100% right?
My dog estimated zero deaths. She has been far more accurate than the "experts." I'm not sure if she finished with her modeling methods as she got distracted by a squirrel. Any which way, I stand my her projection as it has been the most accurate to date.
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39 minutes ago, dynato said:
If no preventive action was taken, we only have a reference like NYC and Italy to go off of. NYC alone faced massive death tolls. which didn't slow down until a month after restrictions were put in place there. MN's metropolitan population is only 1/5th that of NYC metro. It is home to over 500,00 people aged 65+, of which ~70% has a chronic health condition on average. So that means there are 352,000 vulnerable elders in the MN metro area. If 1/4 of them get infected and only 1/3 of the infected die, that is 29,000 deaths from the metro area alone.
I don't think NYC and Italy would be substantially similar demographics to make a valid comparison. NYC - 5.6 million subway rides each day. Minneapolis - quote from S.T. - "The line had its highest single-day ridership on Aug. 31 when 68,071 rides were taken on a day when the Twins, Vikings, Gophers and Saints all had home games and the State Fair was going on."
It's hard to take the "experts" seriously when the only thing they appear to be experts in is being incredibly wrong, and always wrong in one direction.
I think that all the "experts" being quoted and used should have their estimates from prior epidemics/pandemics listed under their name like baseball card stats. I wish I could be so inept at my job.
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10 minutes ago, UND1983 said:
This tweet thread below is exactly what is wrong with our country. People believe this sh×t and spread the info to others, much like Covid does.
Social media, including message boards, suck.
Completely agree. This moron's tweet string comes to the conclusion that kids going back to school will, "close schools forever."
From what I can see, not one statement is based in scientific fact/evidence.
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1 hour ago, Oxbow6 said:
Anyone see the irony in the coronavirus checkpoints on US and State highways by the Native Americans in SD? Seems be an issue between them and Gov. Noem. A Sioux tribal chairman was quoted..."We will not apologize for being an island of safety in a sea of uncertainty and death". Excuse my as I wipe my coffee that I spit out onto my phone when I read that.
Ironic since this is coming from a group of citizens, Native Americans, that in no way shape or form has for decades cared about the public health of its own people. Diabetes, HTN, alcoholism, drug abuse, child abuse, domestic violence...just to name a few are rampant on reservations yet the coronavirus is what's going to kill them en masse in SD? Since we are all about "science and data" in today's world Native Americans are 2x as likely to become diabetic than Caucasians. 2/3 of kidney failure in Native Americans is from diabetes just to give you some quick data.
BTW for the record SD has 39 total deaths to date due to the coronavirus.
Given the health issues with that demographic (as noted above), and many more folks who would be deemed "at risk," it does make some sense to take a more aggressive approach in those communities than others. Also factor in the cultural status of the elders in that community, and many more multi-generational households.
The "island of safety" quote is pure hyperbole, but it does make sense that the reservations would be an area that could be hit harder than, say, Bismarck based strictly on the percent of the population that is "at risk."
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7 minutes ago, UNDlaw80 said:
I understand it's a right-wing talking point, but the "media" isn’t some all-encompassing entity that pushes a uniform agenda.
Half this country is seeks out news from outlets that counters left-leaning news. People hear what they want to hear.
Honest media has gone down the toilet. There's a lot of money to be made from 'news information'. Outlets are business that cater to the wishes of their clients and give them what they want to hear. It's a big reason this country is so divided.
No doubt on the media.
In this situation I don’t see how there can be such a large divergence in opinion if we strictly looked at the actual numbers. Every statement in Ira’s post have been proven to be 100% statistically accurate.
If this were an academic exercise and 10 people were given nothin but the actual statistics there is no way they would propose shutting down the economy and place the current restriction across 95% of the country.
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On 3/6/2020 at 7:08 PM, iramurphy said:I get a regular update on Coronavirus from multiple sources. There is no reason to panic. If you get a cough or flu like symptoms stay home. If you are healthy there isn’t a lot to worry about. If you get it it will likely be similar to a bad cold. It can be serious for elderly and those who are immunocompromised. People in this country who have died, aren’t healthy young and middle aged people. Don’t get your info from the media. Don’t get your info from politicians including the President. The CDC has regular updates. Your doctors should be able to provide answers to your questions.
The post above was from March 6th. What needed to be done was known at that time by anyone with decent critical thinking skills. Unfortunately the second sentence above was not followed. Instead of not getting information from the media and politicians and not panicking, the media has been listened to and caused a colossal panic.
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I took a few minutes and reviewed the CDC weekly summary (43 pages), https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/pdf/covidview-05-08-2020.pdf, and several Midwestern state's data.
My takeaway is that if you are under 60, and are healthy, the chances of death are as close to zero as you can get. Even just using the confirmed numbers, and not the presumed active cases, the risk of complications is tiny. You might be asymptomatic or you may have an awful flu, but you'll almost certainly be fine.
If you have, in this order of importance: hypertension, obesity, cardiovascular disease, or lung disease, the outcome after contraction is not particularly rosy. If you are elderly and have those conditions you do not want to contract COVID. If you are 95, obese with hypertension and CD, you aren't gonna make it.
More than most health issues, the "at risk" group in this case is VERY clearly defined. If you are at risk and want to live your life and assume the risks, have at it. If not, shelter those folks in place and take all reasonable steps to protect them.
There is zero reason for healthy folks under 60 to be sheltering in place.
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18 minutes ago, dlsiouxfan said:Trump once gain threw a temper tantrum like a giant crybaby... if he isn't up to answering these questions then he should resign. It's part of the job and he needs to grow up and start answering these questions.
And if the "reporter" isn't up to asking an actual question with any relevance to the current situation, or that could possibly lead to any information which is at all helpful in writing an article about the actual news, why are they there in the first place?
"Why do you see global testing as a competition?" - Seriously? That's a mainstream journalist's question for the President?
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56 minutes ago, dlsiouxfan said:
This is what would happen.
I also want to be clear what it is that we're going to punish China for doing. They concealed the presence of the coronavirus and actively tried to suppress the outbreak in Wuhan from international scrutiny and media coverage. I guess how is that different than what you all have been advocating that we do for 235 pages now. Either the disease is horrible and any government that works to conceal it from it's citizens and media is committing an atrocity or it's a nothingburger, in which case who can blame China for how they handled it. It really can't be both.
Disclaimer: Nothing above should be considered a defense of China. China is governed by a murderous, autocratic regime that is carrying out an active genocide against the Uighur people and other ethnic minorities within the country. The U.S. should be taking measures to minimize their influence across the globe and encourage leadership changes within the CCP and a removal of Xi from power but those measures are going to have to be a lot more skillful than launching a nuke or defaulting on our debt. It's going to take statecraft that is completely lacking in this administration.
Prior to Trump, the administrations for the last 30 years were complete wusses in dealing with China. Everyone knew (both Rs and Ds) that China was a problem, and that the trade deals were absolute crap, but nobody had the guts to do anything about it. Love him or hate him, Trump was the first to actually stand up to China and try to change that relationship.
As Yzerman said earlier, China has to be laughing their butt off at our reaction to this.
If China stopped/banned travel from Wuhan to other parts of China, but allowed tens of thousands of folks from Wuhan to travel internationally that's a problem.
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5 minutes ago, yzerman19 said:
Dude they canceled the Brick and the Ivan Hlinka...
While I completely disagree with any of these cancellations, I can at least see, given the hysteria, planning, travel, teams from all over the place, many teams wouldn't go or couldn't go... that those tournaments would be cancelled. Cancelling local events is absolutely nuts. Sign a fricking waiver and gets go.
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1 hour ago, SWSiouxMN said:
There went the NoDak State Fair
https://www.grandforksherald.com/news/6485886-North-Dakota-State-Fair-canceled-due-to-COVID-19
I understand that for all the vendors, etc. it's preferable to not cancel the event the week before the gates open, but this is absolutely crazy. An outdoor event... in July... in ND. I wouldn't have been in attendance, but with more and more events being cancelled that give us something to look forward to, and give us hope, the bleaker this is feeling. I couldn't care less about the State Fair, but that was a punch in the gut for some reason.
If all public events are still cancelled through the time that snow flies in late 2020 us Northern folks are going to be going crazy.
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7 minutes ago, UNDlaw80 said:
You obviously have no idea what Franklin was talking about. it's not even his full quote.
Hint: it was about taxation. The choice of taxation to raise funds to prevent attacks from the French vs the right of self-governance.
I believe you are correct that the narrow context of the quote was a tax issue. That said the quote, which could and likely would have easily been, was not limited to that tiny area of civil liberty.
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2 minutes ago, Redneksioux said:
And yet we we still haven’t figured out how exactly to protect the population most at risk.
Unfortunately that's life. Flu, stroke, cancer, dementia. Everyone can't be saved. I think the steps being taken in that regard are pretty darn good. There isn't a great answer to protection of folks who are already higher compromised from a health perspective.
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3 minutes ago, Redneksioux said:
6 deaths in one day is encouraging?
That's a lagging indicator, and if the folks were under 90 and healthy it would be a bit more concerning when restarting the economy. Further evidence of the population most at risk and the population which needs the most reasonable protection.
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3 minutes ago, Redneksioux said:
You could always go back if you need to learn some simple math?
The number of positive tests is pretty much irrelevant on its own without context. The percentage of positive tests is much more important and statistically relevant. If you do 100x the tests of the prior day of course the total positives will be higher.
The numbers the last week have been very encouraging in ND.
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3 hours ago, Redneksioux said:
How will kids forced to grow up with one parent or possibly no parent affect their neglect, hunger and abuse?
In North Dakota, from Covid, the total such minor children stands at 0 (unless the 100+ year old had a minor child.)
I'll take the unemployment, alcohol abuse, stress, domestic situations/violence, foreclosure... as the greater concern in that equation.
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8 minutes ago, Redneksioux said:
A quick google search shows 291,557 US lives were lost in WW2. And this spanned over 4 years.
We've lost 75,000 so far to Covid19 with 2,000 daily still dying.
Thankfully it has been mostly elderly with no future ahead of them though eh?
Just read an article on a 29 woman who passed away with/from Covid. Seemed like an absolutely wonderful person. She was beyond morbidly obese, HBP and likely diabetic. May she rest in peace, but at some point we also have to take responsibility for our decisions. In the end, her death will be used to show that this is killing young people...
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46 minutes ago, Nodak78 said:
You can start with size of population.
Add in demographics and elderly population/care facilities. 13 of 35 long term care facilities are in Cass. I don't have the numbers, but the retirement communities have to be at least that percentage, probably more. Just makes sense to have those facilities are located with adequate medical and other services available.
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I saw a pretty telling graph this morning on CNBC. The question was, "What is more important, my families health, or wealth?
February 1, 2020 94% Health - 6% wealth
April 3, 2020 82% Health - 18% wealth
May 3, 2020 66% Health - 34% wealth
2020 Dumpster Fire (Enter at your own risk)
in Community
Posted
Do you dispute that deaths are being counts as Covid, without a test, so long as there are any Covid symptoms, or even suspecting there were symptoms. (Elderly person found deceased at home are counted). That is not the case with the flu.
Of the deaths reported in ND, how many do you think we’re proximate our caused by Covid?