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Far too early, but what the hell...Bracketology

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I'm not bracketology expert, but from what I can tell by playing around with the pairwise calculator on College Hockey Ranked, other than UND obviously getting 2 big wins this weekend. We could use some help from Maine, UMass, and Clarkson. The caveat with Maine and UMass being that while them winning this weekend would help us in the pairwise, we wouldn't want either to get the HE autobid.

It has been a much tougher season of hockey to watch than we are used to, but as of the the tournament is still very much in reach. Gotta take care of business this weekend though. Getting some help is great, but it does nothing if we don't help ourselves. Get back to the X, where this program has some sweet success in the WCHA!

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33 minutes ago, siouxfan512 said:

I'm not bracketology expert, but from what I can tell by playing around with the pairwise calculator on College Hockey Ranked, other than UND obviously getting 2 big wins this weekend. We could use some help from Maine, UMass, and Clarkson. The caveat with Maine and UMass being that while them winning this weekend would help us in the pairwise, we wouldn't want either to get the HE autobid.

It has been a much tougher season of hockey to watch than we are used to, but as of the the tournament is still very much in reach. Gotta take care of business this weekend though. Getting some help is great, but it does nothing if we don't help ourselves. Get back to the X, where this program has some sweet success in the WCHA!

*with a sweep

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Can someone explain Moy's rationale here?  He's got BC in and UND out.  He says BC is the highest remaining seed in the HE conference tournament, but as far as I can tell both Providence and Northeastern are alive.  

http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2018/03/07/this-weeks-movement-has-omaha-in-north-dakota-out-boston-college-going-to-worcester/

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5 minutes ago, George M. Bluth said:

Can someone explain Moy's rationale here?  He's got BC in and UND out.  He says BC is the highest remaining seed in the HE conference tournament, but as far as I can tell both Providence and Northeastern are alive.  

http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2018/03/07/this-weeks-movement-has-omaha-in-north-dakota-out-boston-college-going-to-worcester/

He’s using BC as Hockey East’s automatic qualifier. He uses the regular season conference champ as the AQ. 

He says highest remaining seeds in the conference tourney , not pairwise ranking. 

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1 minute ago, siouxforce19 said:

He’s using BC as Hockey East’s automatic qualifier. He uses the regular season conference champ as the AQ. 

Gotcha, that makes more sense.  I didn't look that much into it.  Weird how BC is atop the conference, but out of the NCAA tournament, while Prov. and NE are highly ranked nationally but 2-3 in the conference.

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So for UND's sake, we want to see the following win their conference tournament:

Atlantic
Doesn't matter, all below UND and will take one autobid, leaving 15 spots open.

B1G
Doesn't matter, all four remaining are above UND. PSU is the closest remaining at 11. Minnesota is out of the conference tourney but currently at 13.

ECAC
Cornell or Clarkson

Hockey East
Northeastern or Providence. 

WCHA
Mankato

NHCH
SCSU, Denver, UMD, UND. Omaha currently sits one ahead of UND at 14 and would get you in assuming there is only one upset in the ECAC, HE or WCHA. 

 

Guessing BC may have a chance to move up as well, though how much depends on mathcups, which would mean UND needs to win this weekend and hope for chalk in the ECAC and WCHA.

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We know Atlantic Hockey will take one spot away.  The remaining 4 teams in the Big 10 are all in the top 12 so we don't need to worry about them.  The WCHA (3), Hockey East (6) and ECAC (6) all have several non-top 15 teams left that could spoil things.  Obviously we need to take care of our own business, but Mankato, Providence, Northeastern, Cornell and Clarkson should all be gaining some fans down the stretch here.

EDIT - I see jdub beat me to the punch here.

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20 hours ago, franchise said:

*with a sweep

A sweep isn't a must. It would be very much helpful, but it isn't a must.

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1 hour ago, stoneySIOUX said:

A sweep isn't a must. It would be very much helpful, but it isn't a must.

No, not a must, but I'd like to head to the X in 14th, not 15th

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1 hour ago, stoneySIOUX said:

A sweep isn't a must. It would be very much helpful, but it isn't a must.

With the potentail for 3 conference upsets and at least 16th place going to the Atlantic, a Hawks sweep is dam near a must, unless of cousre we sweep at the X. So many possiblities yet. UNO can get back in through the back door by winning just one this weekend and us not doing so well at the X and certain teams losing.

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2 hours ago, George M. Bluth said:

He's got BC in and UND out.  

Over at CHN,

BC has a greater chance to make the tournament than UND.

Omaha also has a greater chance right now at an at large bid than UND does (and why many here are saying a sweep this weekend is essential).

UND only has a 26% chance of making the tournament.

 

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4 minutes ago, BarnWinterSportsEngelstad said:

With the potentail for 3 conference upsets and at least 16th place going to the Atlantic, a Hawks sweep is dam near a must, unless of cousre we sweep at the X. So many possiblities yet. UNO can get back in through the back door by winning just one this weekend and us not doing so well at the X and certain teams losing.

Yeah, for sure. I wasn't trying to be contrarian, basically I'm just saying the team needs to get it done this weekend, regardless in how many games and we can keep moving forward.

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18 minutes ago, Cratter said:

Over at CHN,

BC has a greater chance to make the tournament than UND.

Omaha also has a greater chance right now at an at large bid than UND does (and why many here are saying a sweep this weekend is essential).

UND only has a 26% chance of making the tournament.

 

Percentages will continue to change. Omaha’s dropped by 20 percent after last weekend’s results. Put two more losses on them and that percentage will drop real quick. 

BC won zero non conference games this season, so if they don’t win Hockey East tourney, they might be pretty vulnerable to other results, more so than others. 

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1 hour ago, siouxforce19 said:

Percentages will continue to change. Omaha’s dropped by 20 percent after last weekend’s results. Put two more losses on them and that percentage will drop real quick. 

BC won zero non conference games this season, so if they don’t win Hockey East tourney, they might be pretty vulnerable to other results, more so than others. 

Yeah, that's how it works. Percentages change as games are played...in less than two weeks we won't need any "probabilities."

BC has a 22% chance to win their tournament (and get the auto qualifier) as they won their conference. If they don't get it obviously their chances decrease to make the tournament.

The long and short of it is....there are really only two spots up for grabs to make the tournament (outside of the 16th place for AHA) and UND is in a tight battle with many others for those two spots.

Knocking UNO out with a sweep, and BC losing in the HE tournament, will go a long way to help UND.

Northern Michigan/Bowling Green finished second and third place in the WCHA regular season. Together they have a decent shot at getting the automatic bid (There's a 37% chance Mankato gets upset and the WCHA has two team in the tournament)..... and then only one open spot remains for UND to battle for (given UND doesn't win the NCHC tournament).

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2 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

Not really. Those two are at 2% and 11% respectively for an at-large bid. UND is at 20%. BC, who is ahead of UND in the pairwise only has an 11% chance at an at-large as well. 

You quoted me saying automatic bid....and then you mentioned at large bid?

I edited my post to make it more clear "together they have a decent shot at an automatic bid."

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1 minute ago, jdub27 said:

Not really. Those two are at 2% and 11% respectively for an at-large bid. UND is at 20%. BC, who is ahead of UND in the pairwise only has an 11% chance at an at-large as well. 

BC is behind UND in pairwise. 

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2 minutes ago, Cratter said:

You quoted me saying automatic bid....and then you mentioned at large bid?

I edited my post to make it more clear "together they have a decent shot at an automatic bid."

You're right. They are at 19% and 13% to win the AQ.  Mankato went 2-2 against both of them so anything could happen there. 

 

1 minute ago, siouxforce19 said:

BC is behind UND in pairwise. 

I was looking at the Pairwise probability matrix which shows most likely scenarios. Just a swing and a miss all around on that post for me.

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2 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

You're right. They are at 19% and 13% to win the AQ.  Mankato went 2-2 against both of them so anything could happen there. 

I was looking at the Pairwise probability matrix which shows most likely scenarios. Just a swing and a miss all around on that post for me.

giphy.gif

;)

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45 minutes ago, siouxforce19 said:

BC is behind UND in pairwise. 

And B.C. is 2-4-0 against Northeastern and Providence. They're also 0-7-3 in non-conference play. 

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Would you rather have the opportunity of a couple weekends of games to help your stock or sit where Minnesota is currently in the 13th spot, with possibly 3 weeks off.(Maybe the year) I think they have a 97% chance of making it, but who knows.

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The only sure thing is that if they win 2 this weekend, they still got a chance.

If not, they're the senior class that won a natty and broke the NCAA appearance streak

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In looking at the ranking, if UND gets in the draw might not be that bad.  They may have a potential match-up with DU in the second round, but without having to play SCSU in the first round UND would have a fighting change to advance.  Nobody looks like a juggernaut this year.   If DU and SCSU both get 1 seeds UND would avoid them until the frozen four.  They are (2) of the teams I'd least like to play.

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If you really want to play "what might have been," go play with CHN's customizer feature for the pairwise.

If UND had won those games in which they had a two goal or more lead this year, they'd be number 7 in the pairwise. 

If they had won those games in which they led going into the 3rd period, they would be number 7 in the pairwise.

If they had won those games in which they either had a two goal lead or lead going into the third period, they'd be number 5.

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14 hours ago, SJHovey said:

If you really want to play "what might have been," go play with CHN's customizer feature for the pairwise.

If UND had won those games in which they had a two goal or more lead this year, they'd be number 7 in the pairwise. 

If they had won those games in which they led going into the 3rd period, they would be number 7 in the pairwise.

If they had won those games in which they either had a two goal lead or lead going into the third period, they'd be number 5.

None of these shortfalls are really going to matter if the Fighting Hawks continue to PEAK!

image.jpeg.46bdea2a45153dc929683e07fbec9cac.jpeg

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