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UND at NDSU Dumpster Fire Thread

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jdub27   

Why wouldn't I expect a double digit win? NDSU is coming off of a 14-1 national championship season with the majority of their offense back, including the starting quarterback, entire coaching staff back (not a single assistant left), defense with several returning starters and a lot of young high end talent and are playing at home. Their opponent is coming off of a 5-6 season with an offense that was horrible last year to say the least, and a defense that was middle of the road (I do not call giving up 24 ppg dominate or giving up over 30 to Missouri State as dominate).

Not like I am being an asshole to expect NDSU to win by double digits. Most realistic UND fans say the same thing.

 

You keep bringing up the Missouri State game but fail to mention the other common opponent the two teams had last year (Montana) where UND's "middle of the road" defense held UM to 279 yards and 18 points just two weeks after the Greatest Defense that Ever Played © held UM to a very similar 256 yards and 10 points.  And if you really want to dig down on it, UND gave up 4.0 yards per play vs. 5.3 for NDSU. 

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CMSioux   

Funny how people will give lip service to  the idea of a spirited rivalry, but when the other side of the rivalry demonstrates any of that spirit, they accuse them of "trolling," and want them silenced. 

 

You can't have it both ways. Do you want a rivalry, or not?  A spirited rivalry can't exist in an echo chamber.

Please provide examples of any SU posts that actually focus on the game - the issue is we really don't need a bunch of trolls that feel the need to respond to every comment made here about SU - it's our thread of course we are going to want to slam SU and make positive predictions about our teams - what we don't need is constant troll postings like "trying making the playoffs" or SU chest pounders - I believe you have your own site for that. If you want to come here know you are going to read posts that are poking fun at SU or that are perhaps a bit optimistic about our teams  - you don't need to respond to every one of them. 

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You keep bringing up the Missouri State game but fail to mention the other common opponent the two teams had last year (Montana) where UND's "middle of the road" defense held UM to 279 yards and 18 points just two weeks after the Greatest Defense that Ever Played © held UM to a very similar 256 yards and 10 points. And if you really want to dig down on it, UND gave up 4.0 yards per play vs. 5.3 for NDSU.

No the greatest FCS defense ever was the 2013 Bison not the 2014 Bison. You had one good defensive performance against a Montana team who had a very injured team at that point, was missing Jordan Jordan after midway through the second quarter and think they are dominate? I bring up the Missouri State game because Missouri State was bad last year...really bad. Dominate defenses do not play horribly against bad offenses. I was wrong about giving up 24 ppg. It was 26 ppg. That includes the steller performance to close the year against against 3-8 UNC when they gave up 33 points and the !@#$ down performance against EWU when they put up 52 points.

You are also flat wrong on your stats bud. NDSU defense was on the field for 966 plays last year, gave up 4,486 yards which equates to 4.64 yards per play. UND defense was on the field for 818 plays last year, gave up 4,253 yards which equals 5.20 yards per play. That is according to the NCAA so if you dig down into it you are wrong.

NDSU gave up 14 ppg last year and UND gave up 26 ppg. NDSU had the 5th ranked total defense in the FCS last year. UND had the 34th ranked total defense. NDSU had the third ranked scoring defense last year. UND had the 56th ranked scoring defense. You really are going to try to compare the two? Come on man.

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Bison06   

You keep bringing up the Missouri State game but fail to mention the other common opponent the two teams had last year (Montana) where UND's "middle of the road" defense held UM to 279 yards and 18 points just two weeks after the Greatest Defense that Ever Played © held UM to a very similar 256 yards and 10 points.  And if you really want to dig down on it, UND gave up 4.0 yards per play vs. 5.3 for NDSU. 

Not to split hairs, because you make a valid point, but 18 points is nearly double 10 points. 

 

This is why matchups are so important in this game. Who knows why UND played better than their season average against a good Montana team. Maybe the coaches had a great gameplan, maybe UND players just played better that day, maybe UM had an off day. 

 

How many examples of comparative scoring/stats having no correlation when comparing two teams do we need before everyone just stops bringing this up in a discussion. There is absolutely no correlation to how teams played against common opponents and how they match up against each other. NONE.

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No the greatest FCS defense ever was the 2013 Bison not the 2014 Bison. You had one good defensive performance against a Montana team who had a very injured team at that point, was missing Jordan Jordan after midway through the second quarter and think they are dominate? I bring up the Missouri State game because Missouri State was bad last year...really bad. Dominate defenses do not play horribly against bad offenses. I was wrong about giving up 24 ppg. It was 26 ppg. That includes the steller performance to close the year against against 3-8 UNC when they gave up 33 points and the !@#$ down performance against EWU when they put up 52 points.

You are also flat wrong on your stats bud. NDSU defense was on the field for 966 plays last year, gave up 4,486 yards which equates to 4.64 yards per play. UND defense was on the field for 818 plays last year, gave up 4,253 yards which equals 5.20 yards per play. That is according to the NCAA so if you dig down into it you are wrong.

NDSU gave up 14 ppg last year and UND gave up 26 ppg. NDSU had the 5th ranked total defense in the FCS last year. UND had the 34th ranked total defense. NDSU had the third ranked scoring defense last year. UND had the 56th ranked scoring defense. You really are going to try to compare the two? Come on man.

I only bring this up because somehow you guys view this being a game where UND returns a dominate defense and will face an NDSU team with a good offense and that both teams will have unknowns on both sides of the ball. Just stop it. I saw that defense tourched last year far more often than it played really well. Were they better than under Muss? Yes, but that and giving up 26 ppg does not make them good.

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Gothmog   

Please provide examples of any SU posts that actually focus on the game - the issue is we really don't need a bunch of trolls that feel the need to respond to every comment made here about SU - it's our thread of course we are going to want to slam SU and make positive predictions about our teams - what we don't need is constant troll postings like "trying making the playoffs" or SU chest pounders - I believe you have your own site for that. If you want to come here know you are going to read posts that are poking fun at SU or that are perhaps a bit optimistic about our teams  - you don't need to respond to every one of them. 

 

Pointing out the records of the two teams over the last few years IS focusing on the game. These teams haven't played in 11 years, how else is anyone going to figure out which team is likely to win the game?

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Why wouldn't I expect a double digit win? NDSU is coming off of a 14-1 national championship season with the majority of their offense back, including the starting quarterback, entire coaching staff back (not a single assistant left), defense with several returning starters and a lot of young high end talent and are playing at home. Their opponent is coming off of a 5-6 season with an offense that was horrible last year to say the least, and a defense that was middle of the road (I do not call giving up 24 ppg dominate or giving up over 30 to Missouri State as dominate).

Not like I am being an asshole to expect NDSU to win by double digits. Most realistic UND fans say the same thing.

Funny that you don't understand the way offense and defense play off of each other. Our offense put a ridiculous amount of pressure on the defense last year.

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Plain and Simple ... on paper NDSU is the better team, and until proven otherwise, this will not change. So we can continue to debate it, but it is what it is; stats and recent history (because only recent history is relevant) prove that.

 

That being said, the game is played on the field, not on paper. So come gameday, anyone could win. Any team could have an amazing day, and any team could have an off day.

 

Will NDSU win? Likely but not definitely. Will UND win, unlikely but certainly possible. UND definitely took a step in the right direction last year, but that does not make us Big Sky or National Champs yet. Look at this year as another opportunity to move in the right direction. I don't like moral victories, but a competitive showing against NDSU would say alot about the transition of this program and where we are going.

 

So for the Bison Trolls (Not talking about all of the Bison fans); Yes, we know how good your team is, we know what you have done in the past few years and we know we are not the favorites. BUT there is still going to be a game, and there is still going to be an opportunity for UND. Fans always have the luxury to overlook teams, but the moment a team does that is when they have the potential to lose. Can't wait for gameday.

 

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Why wouldn't I expect a double digit win? NDSU is coming off of a 14-1 national championship season with the majority of their offense back, including the starting quarterback, entire coaching staff back (not a single assistant left), defense with several returning starters and a lot of young high end talent and are playing at home. Their opponent is coming off of a 5-6 season with an offense that was horrible last year to say the least, and a defense that was middle of the road (I do not call giving up 24 ppg dominate or giving up over 30 to Missouri State as dominate).

Not like I am being an asshole to expect NDSU to win by double digits. Most realistic UND fans say the same thing.

Indiana St beat NDSU in 2012 after a 6-5 2011 season, how many Bison fans slammed ISUb and said no way they could win because of how they played in 2011 instead of seeing how they are playing in 2012. Maybe some comments could wait until you see us against Wyoming instead of how we did for one game last year with players no longer there.
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Let's face it, the GF High School Roughriders might have a more potent offense than the UND Roughriders.

 

There we go again. I hit the "Vote this post up" button on your synopsis of how attempts at serious game-related posts go. it was original and mildly funny. A solid effort. Then you come back with this crack. I'll be more careful to prevent my tendency toward premature adulation from this point on.

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Gothmog   

Plain and Simple ... on paper NDSU is the better team, and until proven otherwise, this will not change. So we can continue to debate it, but it is what it is; stats and recent history (because only recent history is relevant) prove that.

 

That being said, the game is played on the field, not on paper. So come gameday, anyone could win. Any team could have an amazing day, and any team could have an off day.

 

Will NDSU win? Likely but not definitely. Will UND win, unlikely but certainly possible. UND definitely took a step in the right direction last year, but that does not make us Big Sky or National Champs yet. Look at this year as another opportunity to move in the right direction. I don't like moral victories, but a competitive showing against NDSU would say alot about the transition of this program and where we are going.

 

So for the Bison Trolls (Not talking about all of the Bison fans); Yes, we know how good your team is, we know what you have done in the past few years and we know we are not the favorites. BUT there is still going to be a game, and there is still going to be an opportunity for UND. Fans always have the luxury to overlook teams, but the moment a team does that is when they have the potential to lose. Can't wait for gameday.

 

I don't recall any Bison fan saying that there was no chance that UND would win the game. But, analyzing this game is difficult precisely because the two teams haven't shared that many common opponents and haven't played each other for such a long time.

 

That said, a UND win, or even a relatively close game, is highly unlikely. Based on where the two teams have been in the recent past, I'd say the odds of an upset are <10%.

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I stand by my prior take:

 

Random observations, for what they're worth:
 
UND offense v. NDSU defense
 
- NDSU's defense lost both starting safeties, three opening day linebackers, and the best DE in FCS. Their twos become the ones. <-- Are the threes ready to be the twos. 
- UND will start _______ at QB and _______ at RB. <-- Monster questions without answers today. 
- Will UND's offensive line be better than how they were playing at the end of 2014. <-- The answer to this is a big factor in how the game will be played. 
 
NDSU offense v. UND defense
 
- How many will UND have to keep in the box to withstand the NDSU run game or will NDSU choose to forgo the run and attack a suspect UND secondary. 
 
Special Teams
 
- NDSU will have a new primary kicker 

 

 

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I don't recall any Bison fan saying that there was no chance that UND would win the game. But, analyzing this game is difficult precisely because the two teams haven't shared that many common opponents and haven't played each other for such a long time.

That said, a UND win, or even a relatively close game, is highly unlikely. Based on where the two teams have been in the recent past, I'd say the odds of an upset are <10%.

The factor not to be ignored is the hype. UND has this game circled, and although that may be cliche and an excuse for NDSU if they lose, it is what it is. Expect a close game. UND will go all out and NDSU will be making sure not to lose a game that could absolutely damage their state perception.

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I don't recall any Bison fan saying that there was no chance that UND would win the game. But, analyzing this game is difficult precisely because the two teams haven't shared that many common opponents and haven't played each other for such a long time.

That said, a UND win, or even a relatively close game, is highly unlikely. Based on where the two teams have been in the recent past, I'd say the odds of an upset are <10%.

I agree with the <10% until we play Wyoming and NDSU plays Montana then the number will get a little clearer. A UND win over Wyoming and a blowout win for the Griz and I think UND's chance for an upset is almost 50-50...almost.

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UND1983   

No the greatest FCS defense ever was the 2013 Bison not the 2014 Bison. You had one good defensive performance against a Montana team who had a very injured team at that point, was missing Jordan Jordan after midway through the second quarter.

 

Why were they missing him midway through 2nd quarter?

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Indiana St beat NDSU in 2012 after a 6-5 2011 season, how many Bison fans slammed ISUb and said no way they could win because of how they played in 2011 instead of seeing how they are playing in 2012. Maybe some comments could wait until you see us against Wyoming instead of how we did for one game last year with players no longer there.

Christ there you go again bringing up the past that has no relevance to this game. It doesn't ever change with you. Have I said UND couldn't win? Anything is possible. I have just said it is extremely unlikely and NDSU has a far superior team in 2015. There is not a single starter from NDSU remaining from the 2012 team and UND is not Indiana State. Indiana State actually had a winning record in 2011 in the toughest conference in the FCS, entered the season ranked in the top 25 and proved to be a top 25 team as they beat a couple of ranked teams and ended up in the top 25. They also had a runner up Walter Payton winner in Bell returning along with a good chunk of their team. See Darrell they were a fairly good team in 2011 and were a good team in 2012. The only relevant past that matters is how each team played last year and how much of their core do those two teams bring back. NDSU has a much better team returning in 2015 than UND. Period. Based on this, I feel NDSU will win. You act like each team is completely unknown at this point. When you are a defending national champion and return the majority of your core, it is safe to say you will be a good team again.

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Dagger   

  NDSU has a big circle around this game too.  A very big circle.    The reality is if UND stayed within 20 I might be surprised.    Until proven differently NDSU is just a lot better.    That is the reality.    I hope UND proves me wrong.

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Gothmog   

The factor not to be ignored is the hype. UND has this game circled, and although that may be cliche and an excuse for NDSU if they lose, it is what it is. Expect a tremendously close game. UND will go all out and NDSU will be making sure not to lose a game that could absolutely damage their state perception.

 

I remember reading a column recently that basically debunked the idea that so-called "rivalry" games are more likely to result in upsets than games between randomly chosen opponents. I thought the methodology was poor, but the conclusion really does make some sense when you think about it. Other than entirely random bounce-of-the-ball factors, the most common reason for an upset would seem to be that one team (the favored team) is less prepared or motivated than the other team. It seems to me that, since both teams are likely to send more time and effort preparing for a game with their "rival," both of those reasons are less, not more, likely to happen in a hyped rivalry game.

 

Needless to say, I don't expect  a tremendously close game.

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Christ there you go again bringing up the past that has no relevance to this game. It doesn't ever change with you. Have I said UND couldn't win? Anything is possible. I have just said it is extremely unlikely and NDSU has a far superior team in 2015. There is not a single starter from NDSU remaining from the 2012 team and UND is not Indiana State. Indiana State actually had a winning record in 2011 in the toughest conference in the FCS, entered the season ranked in the top 25 and proved to be a top 25 team as the beat a couple of ranked teams and ended up in the top 25. The only relevant past that matters is how each team played last year and how much of their core do those two teams bring back. NDSU has a much better team returning in 2015 than UND. Period. Based on this, I feel NDSU will win. You act like each team is completely unknown at this point. When you are a defending national champion and return the majority of your core, it is safe to say you will be a good team again.

The point of my post was you say NDSU will win by double digits because of how they played LAST YEAR, going 5-6 and getting thumped by Missouri St, ISUb went 6-5 in 2011 and beat you guys at home the next year, last year stats mean...NOTHING!! Players leave, other players transfers to your team just by going on what happened last year is pointless. Thank God the game will be played. Oh and about rankings which I heard outside of the top 10 is garbage, UND beat a ranked NAU team.

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Oxbow6   

Let's have UND knock off Wyoming for it's first FBS win before we, UND fans, get our hopes up too high.  If UND gets whacked by 3+ TDs vs Wyoming it won't be any closer vs NDSU.

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Let's have UND knock off Wyoming for it's first FBS win before we, UND fans, get our hopes up too high. If UND gets whacked by 3+ TDs vs Wyoming it won't be any closer vs NDSU.

Exactly!!!! After Wyoming our questions about the team, mainly the offense, should be answered.

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Gothmog   

The point of my post was you say NDSU will win by double digits because of how they played LAST YEAR, going 5-6 and getting thumped by Missouri St, ISUb went 6-5 in 2011 and beat you guys at home the next year, last year stats mean...NOTHING!! Players leave, other players transfers to your team just by going on what happened last year is pointless. Thank God the game will be played. Oh and about rankings which I heard outside of the top 10 is garbage, UND beat a ranked NAU team.

 

At this point, there is no basis to compare any two teams other than previous year's stats and outcomes.

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jdub27   

You are also flat wrong on your stats bud. NDSU defense was on the field for 966 plays last year, gave up 4,486 yards which equates to 4.64 yards per play. UND defense was on the field for 818 plays last year, gave up 4,253 yards which equals 5.20 yards per play. That is according to the NCAA so if you dig down into it you are wrong.

I know following along must be tough for you but I didn't jump from talking about the UM/NDSU and UM/UND games to talking about the whole season.  I'll help you out though: Against NDSU, UM ran 48 plays for 256 yards for an average of 5.3 yards per play.  Against UND, UM ran 69 plays for 279 yards for an average of 4.0 yards per play.  5.3 yards per play is more than 4.0 yards per play, meaning UND gave up less yards per play against UM than NDSU did.  And JJ had led Montana to a whopping 0 points before he was knocked out of the game halfway through the 2nd

 

 

Not to split hairs, because you make a valid point, but 18 points is nearly double 10 points. 

 

This is why matchups are so important in this game. Who knows why UND played better than their season average against a good Montana team. Maybe the coaches had a great gameplan, maybe UND players just played better that day, maybe UM had an off day. 

 

How many examples of comparative scoring/stats having no correlation when comparing two teams do we need before everyone just stops bringing this up in a discussion. There is absolutely no correlation to how teams played against common opponents and how they match up against each other. NONE.

I'll agree, I considered the points fairly close being its basically a touchdown.  I also dislike comparative scoring but I was tired of seeing the Missouri St comparison without a single mention of the Montana one.  Different teams match up better or worse against different opponents. 

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The point of my post was you say NDSU will win by double digits because of how they played LAST YEAR, going 5-6 and getting thumped by Missouri St, ISUb went 6-5 in 2011 and beat you guys at home the next year, last year stats mean...NOTHING!! Players leave, other players transfers to your team just by going on what happened last year is pointless. Thank God the game will be played. Oh and about rankings which I heard outside of the top 10 is garbage, UND beat a ranked NAU team.

UND finished 5-7 last year. I was wrong about 5-6.

The 2012 NDSU football team losing to the 2012 Indiana State football team has no relevance in the discussion as to the probable outcome of the 2015 game to be played between NDSU and UND.

In 2015 NDSU returns the bulk of a 2014 national championship team, all of their coaches, and is playing at home against a 2015 UND team who returns a bulk of a team that had a very bad 2014 season and was completely embarrassed by bad teams. 99.9999% of people who watched the players of the 2014 teams that NDSU and UND had and players who return in 2015 would side with my assumption that it is going to be a double digit NDSU win than would side with your, we don't know how good the teams will be.

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