726 replies to this topic

[siouxweet]

jimdahl, on Feb 22 2009, 02:21 PM, said:

Yale defeating Princeton would have helped if Brown also had.  We definitely came out on the bottom end of my forecast this week.  Here are the games that I noted would swing the PWR the most and their outcomes, in order of importance:

UND did their job, but didn't get much help.

we did move up one spot, it wasn't that bad.  as if you look over the course of the past few weeks UND hasn't gotten much help at all and we still have moved up.  hey if msu wins on tues maybe we'll move up another spot or two.

[jimdahl]

SiouxFanInBoston, on Feb 22 2009, 01:49 PM, said:

BC actually got swept by UNH, so that didn't help either (although I can't feel that badly about BC being swept).

Thanks -- post fixed.

[rochsioux]

The current pairwise from SS.com:

1    Boston University 24 0.5967 23-5-4 0.7812
2    Notre Dame 22 0.5830 25-5-3 0.8030
3    Michigan 22 0.5706 24-10-0 0.7059
4    Denver 20 0.5595 19-9-4 0.6562
5    Vermont 20 0.5584 17-8-5 0.6500
6    Princeton 18 0.5545 20-7-0 0.7407
7    Northeastern 17 0.5677 20-8-4 0.6875
8    Cornell 16 0.5508 17-6-4 0.7037
9    New Hampshire 16 0.5506 16-9-5 0.6167
10   Miami 16 0.5477 18-9-5 0.6406
11   North Dakota 15 0.5486 20-11-3 0.6324
12   Yale 14 0.5476 19-6-2 0.7407
13   Minnesota-Duluth 12 0.5424 16-9-7 0.6094
14   St. Lawrence 11 0.5305 17-11-4 0.5938
15   Ohio State 10 0.5386 19-11-4 0.6176
16   Colorado College 9 0.5333 16-9-8 0.6061
17   Wisconsin 8 0.5298 16-13-3 0.5469
18   Air Force 8 0.5297 22-8-2 0.7188
19   Minnesota 6 0.5284 13-11-6 0.5333
20   St Cloud St 6 0.5257 17-13-2 0.5625
21   Mass.-Lowell 4 0.5254 15-13-2 0.5333
22   Boston College 3 0.5257 13-12-5 0.5167
23   Alaska 2 0.5219 15-11-6 0.5625
24   Massachusetts 1 0.5098 14-15-3 0.4844
25   RIT 0 0.5087 20-10-2 0.6562

UMass has entered the top 25 this w/e.

Should UMass be in the top 25?  I realize that their RPI is in the top 25 but this year the NCAA also added:
Selection Requirements. To be considered during the at-large selection process, a team must have an overall won-lost record of .500 or better.

UMass is currently 14-15-3 and thus ineligible to be in the tourny.  If they can't be in the tourny should they still be a TUC ?

[siouxweet]

rochsioux, on Feb 22 2009, 03:52 PM, said:

The current pairwise from SS.com:

1    Boston University 24 0.5967 23-5-4 0.7812
2    Notre Dame 22 0.5830 25-5-3 0.8030
3    Michigan 22 0.5706 24-10-0 0.7059
4    Denver 20 0.5595 19-9-4 0.6562
5    Vermont 20 0.5584 17-8-5 0.6500
6    Princeton 18 0.5545 20-7-0 0.7407
7    Northeastern 17 0.5677 20-8-4 0.6875
8    Cornell 16 0.5508 17-6-4 0.7037
9    New Hampshire 16 0.5506 16-9-5 0.6167
10   Miami 16 0.5477 18-9-5 0.6406
11   North Dakota 15 0.5486 20-11-3 0.6324
12   Yale 14 0.5476 19-6-2 0.7407
13   Minnesota-Duluth 12 0.5424 16-9-7 0.6094
14   St. Lawrence 11 0.5305 17-11-4 0.5938
15   Ohio State 10 0.5386 19-11-4 0.6176
16   Colorado College 9 0.5333 16-9-8 0.6061
17   Wisconsin 8 0.5298 16-13-3 0.5469
18   Air Force 8 0.5297 22-8-2 0.7188
19   Minnesota 6 0.5284 13-11-6 0.5333
20   St Cloud St 6 0.5257 17-13-2 0.5625
21   Mass.-Lowell 4 0.5254 15-13-2 0.5333
22   Boston College 3 0.5257 13-12-5 0.5167
23   Alaska 2 0.5219 15-11-6 0.5625
24   Massachusetts 1 0.5098 14-15-3 0.4844
25   RIT 0 0.5087 20-10-2 0.6562

UMass has entered the top 25 this w/e.

Should UMass be in the top 25?  I realize that their RPI is in the top 25 but this year the NCAA also added:
Selection Requirements. To be considered during the at-large selection process, a team must have an overall won-lost record of .500 or better.

UMass is currently 14-15-3 and thus ineligible to be in the tourny.  If they can't be in the tourny should they still be a TUC ?

I don't think that matters as you can still be a TUC but just won't be able to make the tournament with a losing record. plus i don't think they'llbe one for long as BU should take care of them this weekend.

[squirtcoach]

The UMass situation is an interesting one.    If a team is not eligible then they are not under consideration, no?  Granted, the PWR before the end of the season is an excercise of fantasy, but if you trying to mimic the end of the season 'today',  I would venture the NCAA would not have UMass as a TUC.

[jimdahl]

Here's what the championship handbook has to say:

Quote

To be considered during the at-large selection process, a team must have an overall won-lost record of .500 or better.

Quote

Results versus teams under consideration (“teams under consideration” defined as those teams that finish in the Top 25 of the final RPI, does not automatically include conference automatic qualifiers, unless those teams meet this criteria). This category if used only if the two teams being compared have played a minimum of ten games versus “teams under consideration”.

I could see it going either way -- don't compare to them as a TUC because they're not .500, or count them as a TUC but just don't pick them at large.  However, to me the latter seems slightly more consistent with the way the NCAA usually implements such rules.

In the face of such ambiguity, I usually just have the PWR calculation do what CHN & USCHO do on the possibility one of them got the scoop from the committee and because people like the consistency.  If it occurs this year that there's a sub .500 in the top 25, there's a small chance we'll be able to tell based on who gets selected.

[nodakvindy]

A lot still depends on whether Dartmouth can regain TUC status.  If they don't then it's highly likely that none of Cornell (at least against UND), Yale or Princeton will make the 10 game TUC requirement and that category will get thrown out of the comparisons.  In that case, those comparisons will essentially be RPI only.

Yale losing to Princeton was better, because the Princeton comparison is still flippable, but a Yale win would have made the Yale-UND comparison almost impossible to flip, especially if Dartmouth is a TUC.

While UND did not appear to move up a great deal, when you look at the RPIs now,  the Sioux could make up a great deal of ground with a sweep of CC and just a little help.  Remember that this is the last weekend for the top CCHA and ECAC clubs, and they will be off when UND travels to Madison.  Should the Sioux win their last four games, a move up to even 5 is possible.

Teams to root for next weekend

Michigan State - (2 vs Notre Dame), will help RPI and help Sioux in COP comparison with Irish
Air Force - (2 vs RIT) sweep would knock RIT from TUC status, allowing Dartmouth or Mankato to potentially move up.
Boston U - (2 vs UMass) will knock UMass from TUC status, doubly beneficial
Ohio State/Miami - split will keep either from gaining ground in RPI
Harvard - win vs. Princeton will help UND in COP comparison with Tigers
Cornell - win vs Yale will help UND in COP comparison with Bulldogs.  UND should pass Cornell in RPI with sweep of CC, since win over Brown would be thrown out for RPI purposes.
Merrimack - even if UNH sweeps them, UND can possibly pass them in RPI with sweep of CC
St. Cloud - besides helping to give some breathing room in the league standings. A DU loss along with sweep of CC will flip COP and overall comparison to UND.

[mikejm]

Just win, baby.

[Speez]

mikejm, on Feb 22 2009, 07:46 PM, said:

Just win, baby.

Looks just like your avatar aged about 40 years.

Must be the Sioux early season starts wearing on you.

[RedFrog]

What would be our preferred outcome of the Vermont/New Hampshire series this weekend?

[siouxhockeyfan11]

New Hamprshire losing we're still only 18 points behind them in RPI.

[siouxweet]

siouxhockeyfan11, on Feb 23 2009, 12:02 PM, said:

New Hamprshire losing we're still only 18 points behind them in RPI.

however if we split and they split they will still haver a better rpi than us.

[stickboy1956]

jimdahl, on Feb 22 2009, 04:20 PM, said:

Here's what the championship handbook has to say:


I could see it going either way -- don't compare to them as a TUC because they're not .500, or count them as a TUC but just don't pick them at large.  However, to me the latter seems slightly more consistent with the way the NCAA usually implements such rules.

In the face of such ambiguity, I usually just have the PWR calculation do what CHN & USCHO do on the possibility one of them got the scoop from the committee and because people like the consistency.  If it occurs this year that there's a sub .500 in the top 25, there's a small chance we'll be able to tell based on who gets selected.

Using Slack.net "Do your own rankings," a win by Mankato tonight bumps our RPI to .5495 (currently .5486), UNO win drops our RPI to .5476, a tie drops the RPI to .5485.

Where we end up in the PWR depends on whether or not UMass is considered a TUC, because their record is below .500.

Slack.net default calculation settings do not include teams below .500 and their PWR rankings are different than UCHO/CHN.

Without UMass as a TUC we are currently 10 in the PWR (via Slack.net)

http://slack.net/~wh...w/tbrw.cgi?2009

1 Boston Univ 23 .5970
2 Notre Dame 22 .5828
3 Michigan                 21             .5706
4 Denver U                 19 .5595
5 NorthEastern 18 .5675
6 Vermont                 18 .5582
7 Princeton                 17 .5546
8 Cornell                 15 .5508
9 New Hampshire 15 .5504
10 North Dakota 15 .5486
11 Miami                 14 .5477
12 Yale                 13 .5476
13 Minn-Duluth 11 .5424
14 Ohio State 9 .5386
15 CO College 8 .5333
16 St Lawrence 8 .5306

With Mass as a TUC we are 11 in the PWR (via USCHO)

1 Boston University 24 .5970*
2t Notre Dame 22 .5828*
2t Michigan                 22 .5706
4t Denver                 20 .5595
4t Vermont                 20 .5582
6 Princeton                 18 .5546*
7 Northeastern 17 .5675
8t Cornell                 16 .5508
8t New Hampshire 16 .5504
8t Miami                 16 .5477
11 North Dakota 15 .5486
12 Yale                 14 .5476*
13 Minnesota-Duluth 12 .5424
14 St. Lawrence 11 .5306
15 Ohio State                 10 .5386
16 Colorado College 9 .5333

You see how this could be a big deal for teams on the bubble (12-14) and would impact the seedings.

[siouxweet]

stickboy1956, on Feb 24 2009, 11:50 AM, said:

Using Slack.net "Do your own rankings," a win by Mankato tonight bumps our RPI to .5495 (currently .5486), UNO win drops our RPI to .5476, a tie drops the RPI to .5485.

Where we end up in the PWR depends on whether or not UMass is considered a TUC, because their record is below .500.

Slack.net default calculation settings do not include teams below .500 and their PWR rankings are different than UCHO/CHN.

Without UMass as a TUC we are currently 10 in the PWR (via Slack.net)

http://slack.net/~wh...w/tbrw.cgi?2009

1 Boston Univ 23 .5970
2 Notre Dame 22 .5828
3 Michigan                 21             .5706
4 Denver U                 19 .5595
5 NorthEastern 18 .5675
6 Vermont                 18 .5582
7 Princeton                 17 .5546
8 Cornell                 15 .5508
9 New Hampshire 15 .5504
10 North Dakota 15 .5486
11 Miami                 14 .5477
12 Yale                 13 .5476
13 Minn-Duluth 11 .5424
14 Ohio State 9 .5386
15 CO College 8 .5333
16 St Lawrence 8 .5306

With Mass as a TUC we are 11 in the PWR (via USCHO)

1 Boston University 24 .5970*
2t Notre Dame 22 .5828*
2t Michigan                 22 .5706
4t Denver                 20 .5595
4t Vermont                 20 .5582
6 Princeton                 18 .5546*
7 Northeastern 17 .5675
8t Cornell                 16 .5508
8t New Hampshire 16 .5504
8t Miami                 16 .5477
11 North Dakota 15 .5486
12 Yale                 14 .5476*
13 Minnesota-Duluth 12 .5424
14 St. Lawrence 11 .5306
15 Ohio State                 10 .5386
16 Colorado College 9 .5333

You see how this could be a big deal for teams on the bubble (12-14) and would impact the seedings.

will a mankato win be enough to get them to be a TUC and ifso how many spots would we move up?

[RedFrog]

siouxweet, on Feb 24 2009, 10:05 AM, said:

will a mankato win be enough to get them to be a TUC and ifso how many spots would we move up?

When I ran it, Mankato moved up to #24 in the RPI, making them a TUC, thus moving us to #10 in the Pairwise(tied for 8th w/ Cornell and New Hampshire).  Miami would be the team to suffer the most(falling to 12), having 3 comparison's flipped against them (UND/DU/Yale).

Now take into consideration what stickboy said about the sub .500 team not being a TUC as Mankato would only be 14-15-3.  I'm not sure how this would affect Mankato's position as a TUC.

[stickboy1956]

siouxweet, on Feb 24 2009, 10:05 AM, said:

will a mankato win be enough to get them to be a TUC and ifso how many spots would we move up?

We move up to 10 with a MSU win (even if -500 teams are not TUC's).

[jimdahl]

stickboy1956, on Feb 24 2009, 10:50 AM, said:

You see how this could be a big deal for teams on the bubble (12-14) and would impact the seedings.

Thanks for the info, it seems like we'll definitely be able to tell which it way is if the situation arises.

UMass, 0.5097 (#24), 14-15-3

Too many wins will push them over .500, too many losses will push them out of the top 25 RPI.  It'll be difficult for them to thread the needle, but it's certainly possible.  In addition to Mankato, NMU or Maine could conceivably also get into the same situation.

[stickboy1956]

jimdahl, on Feb 24 2009, 10:45 AM, said:

Thanks for the info, it seems like we'll definitely be able to tell which it way is if the situation arises.

UMass, 0.5097 (#24), 14-15-3

Too many wins will push them over .500, too many losses will push them out of the top 25 RPI.  It'll be difficult for them to thread the needle, but it's certainly possible.  In addition to Mankato, NMU or Maine could conceivably also get into the same situation.

If I recall, doesn't the "committee" have some sort of presser the week before selection Sun (the week of the F5)? I seem to recall USCHO/CHN covering this.

If so this question would be an important one to ask.

[brianvf]

Thanks for the latest PWR blog post, Jim!

Always informative...

[jimdahl]

brianvf, on Feb 25 2009, 11:38 AM, said:

Thanks for the latest PWR blog post, Jim!

Always informative...

You beat me to posting in this thread

There's a lot more prose than usual, including some inspired by the discussions in this thread, so I'll actually link to the post instead of just including the charts...

Feb. 25 PWR forecast

I was waiting until today so last night's result would be included.  Given the small number of games next weekend, I also did a two week run.  UND's chart from that run is included in the post, but the "who to cheer for" was not noticeably superior to the one-week version and a little harder to interpret so I didn't do anything with it.